Aiming at 4 trillion investment in commercial vehicles

Although the sales volume of commercial vehicles has continued to decline since the second half of last year, the enthusiasm of commercial vehicle projects launched by companies has been rising since the beginning of this year. At the beginning of January, Terry Investment Co., Ltd., the chairman of Chery's chairman Yin Tongyao, signed an agreement with two other companies in Shenzhen to set up Jirui Union Truck Co., Ltd., and plans to launch a commercial vehicle brand at this year's Shanghai auto show.

On January 29, Beiqi Foton and Daimler signed the "Commercial Vehicle Cooperation Agreement" in Berlin, Germany. The two sides agreed to set up a joint venture company in China to produce Auman brand products. On February 4, the reporter learned from General China that they and FAW Group are exploring the possibility of establishing a cooperative relationship. According to reports, a company named "FAW-GM Light Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd." has passed the review of the State Administration for Industry and Commerce. At the same time, officials from the Guangzhou Municipal Economic and Trade Bureau told reporters that Guangzhou Automobile's Hino commercial vehicle project has already passed approval, and construction will begin in October this year. It will introduce the production of Hino's 700 truck series tractors, general trucks, and its supporting vehicle diesel engines. After the project is completed, it will become one of the largest commercial vehicle production bases in China.

Compared with the enthusiasm of companies, the commercial vehicle market has been sluggish since the second half of last year. According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, passenger cars were sold and sold at 251,700 units and 258,800 units in 2008, a year-on-year decrease of 19.89 percentage points and 27.40 percentage points; sales and sales of trucks were 1,630,100 and 1,640,600, down 8.45 percentage points and 6.92 percentage points year-on-year. In January 2009, except for trucks, the production and sales of all types of commercial vehicles decreased significantly year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with the production and sales of semi-trailer tractors down 91.97% and 86.72% year-on-year. Dong Yang, Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said: "The market demand for commercial vehicles is facing a real decline."

Many research institutions are pessimistic about the commercial vehicle market this year. Analysis of Xinhuaxin International Information Consulting Company believes that the total passenger car sales in 2009 are expected to fall by 5% to 15%; the market demand for medium and heavy trucks is expected to drop by 10% from 2008.

Under such circumstances, the government’s 4 trillion yuan of measures to promote domestic demand last year has brought about some confidence in the commercial vehicle market. According to reports, of the 4 trillion yuan in big cakes, more than half will be put into railways and infrastructure construction. For example, the Ministry of Transport strives to reach an annual fixed-asset investment scale of 1 trillion yuan this year and next year. The Ministry of Railways plans to In the next three years, the scale of national railway investment will exceed 3.5 trillion yuan, and these measures will directly boost demand for commercial vehicles. At the same time, in response to the 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus package promulgated by the country, the total investment of up to 30 trillion yuan in investment measures introduced by local governments will further increase the demand for commercial vehicles. Chairman of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Ma Chunji said that the overall demand for heavy-duty trucks in the country will generally slow down this year, but with the gradual implementation of a series of national macro-control policies, the heavy-duty truck industry will take the lead and the market is expected to rebound in the second quarter of this year.

However, there are also people in the industry who believe that the commercial vehicle has obtained little cake from the 4 trillion yuan investment. Aowei Consulting's analysis believes that it is difficult for the commercial vehicle market to pick up in 2009, and the 4 trillion yuan plan for promoting domestic demand has limited the commercial vehicle market. It is expected that the effect will be reflected after 3 years. Li Chunbo, a senior automotive analyst at CITIC Securities, believes that the new economic stimulus measures have a positive effect on commercial vehicles, especially heavy trucks. However, as the correlation between the commercial vehicle market and GDP growth is significant, the negative growth trend of the commercial vehicle market in 2009 is difficult to change. It is expected that the growth rate of the domestic commercial vehicle market will remain around 10% this year.

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