The price rise of petrochemical products such as PTA has been established
At the PTA video lecture held by Zhengzhou, PTA senior researcher Xu Zhilong made an in-depth analysis of the PTA futures investment under the new petrochemical view. He believes that crude oil will rise at an acute angle in the future, and the trend of rising petrochemical prices has been established.
In 2010, the PTA futures prices fluctuated, falling from the end of April to the beginning of May and returning to around 20% at the beginning of August, then rising all the way up to 11750 yuan/ton on November 11, an increase of about 70%, and then fell. . At the same time, PTA futures have a record high turnover and turnover.
Xu Zhilong believes that the actual spot price of PTA in 2010 is actually stronger than the futures price, and the futures delivery price has not yet returned to the peak in 2008. In the future, PTA will continue to maintain high profits. The high profitability of PTA in 2009-2010 was mainly attributed to the abduction of PX's kidnapping. Currently, PX is in profit recovery, and the profit of PX singulator will increase in the fourth quarter of 2010. Polyester profits have seen a dramatic correction in December 2010. On the supply side, the production of PTA and polyester increased significantly. Among them, the increase in PTA output was mainly due to the increase in production of filaments. In 2010, China imported about 6.2 million tons of PTA and imported 6.1 million tons of MEG, an increase of nearly 300,000 tons. On the demand side, polyester domestic demand and exports are strong, and finished product exports have surged.
In 2008, oil prices encountered “Waterlooâ€. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, the collapse of oil prices has caused almost all Middle Eastern countries to fall into trouble. The Dubai crisis is also a concentrated reflection of the collapse in oil prices. Xu Zhilong believes that most petrochemical products are spot products and they are easy to obtain pricing power. The oil price of 75-80 dollars per barrel is acceptable. Excessive oil prices will highlight the advantages of new energy. China will take the Middle East pricing power and the Middle East will decide on raw material supply and pricing. Crude oil will rise at an acute angle in the future, and the trend of rising prices for petrochemical products has also been established.
China's PTA production capacity exceeded 16.2 million tons by the end of 2010, and China's PX capacity will continue to dominate the world in the future. The digestion of polyester production capacity will depend mainly on domestic demand. Xu Zhilong believes that the integrity of China's industrial chain has not yet been restored. Prior to this, only a few companies were able to take advantage of pricing power in the Middle East.
According to Xu Zhilong, global PX production capacity will increase steadily in the future. In 2011, global PX production capacity will reach 38.8 million tons, global PTA production capacity will reach 54 million tons, and China will exceed 20 million tons. Polyester production capacity is concentrated and MEG supply pressure is increasing. In 2011, China will increase its polyester production capacity by 3.6 million to 4 million tons, and China's polyester production capacity will increase rapidly. In 2012, China's PTA consumption will reach 22.48 million tons, PTA production capacity will be 29.48 million tons, and the 80% operating rate will make the domestic supply and demand balance basically.
Xu Zhilong believes that macroscopically restricting the upside of PTA prices, the fundamentals will allow PTA to maintain its good position, but the policy shift will also affect the price of PTA. In the future, the center of gravity of raw material prices will shift upwards, and the product market will be mixed. He suggested that market participants should adopt more sensible strategies, and spot enterprises should appropriately reserve inventory. Futures investors should consider hedging transactions, such as PTA and crude oil, PTA futures and MEG spot, and Hedging of PTA and stock index.
In 2010, the PTA futures prices fluctuated, falling from the end of April to the beginning of May and returning to around 20% at the beginning of August, then rising all the way up to 11750 yuan/ton on November 11, an increase of about 70%, and then fell. . At the same time, PTA futures have a record high turnover and turnover.
Xu Zhilong believes that the actual spot price of PTA in 2010 is actually stronger than the futures price, and the futures delivery price has not yet returned to the peak in 2008. In the future, PTA will continue to maintain high profits. The high profitability of PTA in 2009-2010 was mainly attributed to the abduction of PX's kidnapping. Currently, PX is in profit recovery, and the profit of PX singulator will increase in the fourth quarter of 2010. Polyester profits have seen a dramatic correction in December 2010. On the supply side, the production of PTA and polyester increased significantly. Among them, the increase in PTA output was mainly due to the increase in production of filaments. In 2010, China imported about 6.2 million tons of PTA and imported 6.1 million tons of MEG, an increase of nearly 300,000 tons. On the demand side, polyester domestic demand and exports are strong, and finished product exports have surged.
In 2008, oil prices encountered “Waterlooâ€. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, the collapse of oil prices has caused almost all Middle Eastern countries to fall into trouble. The Dubai crisis is also a concentrated reflection of the collapse in oil prices. Xu Zhilong believes that most petrochemical products are spot products and they are easy to obtain pricing power. The oil price of 75-80 dollars per barrel is acceptable. Excessive oil prices will highlight the advantages of new energy. China will take the Middle East pricing power and the Middle East will decide on raw material supply and pricing. Crude oil will rise at an acute angle in the future, and the trend of rising prices for petrochemical products has also been established.
China's PTA production capacity exceeded 16.2 million tons by the end of 2010, and China's PX capacity will continue to dominate the world in the future. The digestion of polyester production capacity will depend mainly on domestic demand. Xu Zhilong believes that the integrity of China's industrial chain has not yet been restored. Prior to this, only a few companies were able to take advantage of pricing power in the Middle East.
According to Xu Zhilong, global PX production capacity will increase steadily in the future. In 2011, global PX production capacity will reach 38.8 million tons, global PTA production capacity will reach 54 million tons, and China will exceed 20 million tons. Polyester production capacity is concentrated and MEG supply pressure is increasing. In 2011, China will increase its polyester production capacity by 3.6 million to 4 million tons, and China's polyester production capacity will increase rapidly. In 2012, China's PTA consumption will reach 22.48 million tons, PTA production capacity will be 29.48 million tons, and the 80% operating rate will make the domestic supply and demand balance basically.
Xu Zhilong believes that macroscopically restricting the upside of PTA prices, the fundamentals will allow PTA to maintain its good position, but the policy shift will also affect the price of PTA. In the future, the center of gravity of raw material prices will shift upwards, and the product market will be mixed. He suggested that market participants should adopt more sensible strategies, and spot enterprises should appropriately reserve inventory. Futures investors should consider hedging transactions, such as PTA and crude oil, PTA futures and MEG spot, and Hedging of PTA and stock index.
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