China's single crystal market boom is on the rise

Industry insiders told reporters that at present, the reduction in scale is close to “flooring”, and continuous technological innovation has become the most effective means for PV to achieve parity online. In addition, with the drive of the national “top runner” project and the demand for high-power components in the downstream market, the market share of monocrystalline will gradually expand.

Monocrystalline silicon exhibits a strong return trend

In the current global solar power market, crystalline silicon power generation accounts for more than 90% of the market. At the end of 2014, polycrystalline products accounted for 70% of the global crystalline silicon products. However, in recent years, due to the hot market of monocrystalline silicon in the developed countries such as the United States, Japan, Germany, and the strong demand in the domestic downstream market, sales of domestic monocrystalline silicon manufacturing companies have surged.

The reporter noted that as early as the second half of 2014, SolarCity invested 350 million US dollars to acquire Cylon Power, which is a high-efficiency N-type single crystal battery, and tried the monocrystalline silicon route. At the beginning of 2015, the world's largest monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic The product manufacturer Longji integrated Leye Photovoltaic, and began to formally engage in the manufacture and sales of monocrystalline silicon component products. It has shown rapid development momentum when it enters the market.

It is worth mentioning that at the beginning of last year, Leye Photovoltaic signed a strategic agreement with six PV power plant developers. According to the agreement, in the next three years, Leye Photovoltaic and its parent company Longji will supply the new energy to the Chinese people. Not less than 4.3 GW of single crystal components, supply not less than 3 GW of monocrystalline silicon wafers/batteries to Linyang Energy, and supply not less than 1.8 GW of monocrystalline modules to China Merchants New Energy, and supply to Shandong Tianen is not low For the 1.5 GW single crystal module, supply no less than 1 GW of single crystal components to Wuxi and Tianhong Sunshine. In addition, the mass production scale and conversion efficiency of Leye PV's PERC single crystal cells and modules are currently among the highest in the world.

In 2016, the results of Longji shares were very bright. According to the company's performance forecast, Longji's sales revenue exceeded 10 billion, with an annual growth of about 100% and a net profit of 1.4-1.6 billion yuan, making it one of the best companies in the photovoltaic industry.

In addition, Zhonghuan said in its 2016 annual report that in 2016, the demand for single crystal products from customers continued to rise, and the supply of effective capacity in the market was insufficient. The monocrystalline silicon wafers produced by Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. were trusted by customers and continued to be in short supply. In fact, last year, the sales of all single crystal enterprises in China were basically hot.

According to the reporter's understanding, the domestic single crystal market share in 2014 was about 5%. At the end of 2015, this figure exceeded 15%. In 2016, the domestic single crystal market share was a breakthrough increase to 27%. In the first half of 2017, monocrystalline silicon wafers in the photovoltaic market continued the trend of hot demand in 2016. The demand for high-efficiency products will continue to increase in the second half of the year, and the market share of single crystal products will continue to grow.

It should be pointed out that in 2006, in the field of crystalline silicon products, in fact, single crystal and polycrystalline are equally divided. Therefore, it is not difficult to see that the current single crystal silicon is showing a strong return situation.

Cost reduction and efficiency increase are practical needs

In the past, for a long time, in the crystalline silicon market, polysilicon has been “unified”, and the high production cost of monocrystalline silicon is an important reason.

Wang Shijiang, deputy secretary-general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that the key to the rise of single crystal products in 2015 is that the breakthrough in technology will drive down the cost. In two aspects, the first monocrystalline silicon wafer has been completed from the mortar line to the diamond line. The cutting transformation improves the cutting efficiency by more than 50%. The second is the continuous crystal pulling process, which improves the productivity of the single crystal silicon rod, improves the output and reduces the cost.

The cost is reduced and the price is naturally reduced. Since 2016, the cost of single crystal has dropped rapidly, and the cost advantage of single crystal has gradually become prominent. In the future, the price difference of single polycrystalline components will be reduced to 0.01~0.02 USD/W, and the price/performance ratio will gradually become prominent. It is understood that the single crystal enterprise represented by Longji currently reduces the cost of crystal pulling to 40~50 yuan/kg, which is only 1.9~2.3 cents/watt per watt. Even if the crystal is finished with diamond wire and black silicon, the cost The advantage is still not obvious. With the sharp drop in the price of single crystals, single crystal products have gradually competed with polycrystalline products.

The above-mentioned insiders told reporters that technological progress determines the future of the photovoltaic industry. Photovoltaic enterprises need to use technology as the foundation, improve the efficiency of product research and development, improve the efficiency of product conversion, and reduce the cost with efficiency. In order to promote the realization of affordable Internet access and subsidization, PV can go hand in hand.

Compared with polycrystalline, what are the advantages of single crystal? According to the reporter, in the operation level of power station, single crystal can save 5% of land rent and 6% of operation and maintenance cost, while single crystal per watt of electricity The amount is at least 3% higher than that of polycrystalline. Under the financing structure of 25% capital ratio and 15 years loan period, the capital internal rate of return of investment in monocrystalline power plants in central China will be at least 2.78% higher than that of investment polycrystalline power plants. the above.

In addition, a set of Qinghai Golmud 20MW photovoltaic power plant operation data shows that the normal situation (unrestricted power impact), 10 MW monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic array 2013 ~ 2015 power generation compared to 10 MW polysilicon The photovoltaic array power generation increased by 782,000 kWh, and the single crystal silicon could be 4.58% higher than the polysilicon power generation. This is a real benefit for the customer.

Obviously, in the current gradual downward adjustment of PV subsidies, more project developers will pay attention to the control of electricity costs in the future, and monocrystalline silicon products with high conversion efficiency will gradually be recognized by more people.

Distributed photovoltaic power monocrystalline silicon development

It is particularly worth mentioning that since the launch of the “Top Runner” program in 2015, different efficiency lower limits have been established for single crystals and polycrystals, of which 17% for monocrystalline components and 16.5% for polycrystalline components. After one year of testing, about 20% of polycrystalline products meet the “Leader” program standard, and almost 100% of single crystal components meet the standards, which directly promotes the rapid development of China's monocrystalline silicon market.

It is understood that in 2016, under the impetus of China's "leaders" base, monocrystalline components rushed all the way, achieving a surprise achievement of three times the total market share of single crystal. The first Datong “leaders” base single crystal accounted for more than 60%.

The reporter noticed that the National Energy Administration recently released the “New Scale Construction Plan for Photovoltaic Power Plants from 2017 to 2020”, which proposes to arrange 8 million kilowatts of runner-up base projects every year from 2017 to 2020. Obviously, the country will vigorously develop the "leaders" plan in the next few years.

According to data released by the National Energy Administration, in the first half of 2017, the country added 7.11 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaics, a year-on-year increase of 2.9 times. The development of installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation continues to accelerate. With the gradual reduction of PV subsidies, the development speed of distributed PV will be further accelerated.

Ding Wenlei, founder of Aerospace Energy, said that in distributed generation, especially for rooftop power plants, the use of single crystals can achieve more power installed capacity on a limited roof area. “Roof resources are more precious.” The distributed advantage lies in local consumption. Moreover, the enthusiasm for single crystals from Germany and Japan can show the trend of demand for the entire distributed single crystal.

Obviously, distributed is more concerned with conversion efficiency. According to the "13th Five-Year Plan for Power Development", during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, distributed PV installations will reach 60 million kilowatts or more.

In summary, it is not difficult to judge that the “leaders” and distributed photovoltaics will vigorously promote the development of the monocrystalline silicon industry in the next few years.

According to the relevant agencies, with the continuous development of the photovoltaic market and the active promotion of the “Leader” program, high-efficiency batteries will become the market leader, and the market share of monocrystalline silicon cells will gradually increase, and is expected to reach 48% by 2025. The market share of N-type monocrystalline silicon cells increased from 3.5% in 2016 to 30% in 2025.