Demystifying the status quo of the Chinese car market forecast that 6 cars may be discontinued

“Xia Li produced 1 million cars in 18 years.” This news announced by Tianjin FAW a few days ago has provided new examples of the unique history of the “old models and longevity” of the Chinese auto industry. Last year, Shanghai Volkswagen’s Santana realized a cumulative production of 2 million vehicles, which took 20 years. People’s hearts have become more skeptical: Why is it that the prototypes with few life cycles in foreign countries will be sold in China for more than 10 years and 20 years, far exceeding the life cycle of common products? Correspondingly, new cars that do not make money are constantly changing their faces. Although the third generation of Xiali "N3" type went offline, Tian Ming, general manager of Tianjin FAW Xiali Co., Ltd. made it clear in Tianjin that "Old Xiali will not stop production, and new products will be produced in line with old products until the original product is not Market demand so far.” In fact, from N3 more than 20,000 yuan more than the price of the old Xiali can be seen, the old Xiali's price space was carefully protected. And from the sales volume in the first seven months of this year, Xiali is still the best sold in its class. The same is true of Santana, after Shanghai Shanghai Volkswagen tossed the wave of price cuts for two months, it finally recaptured the top boss of sales in July with a sales performance of 28,000 units. Among them, Santana, which has dropped to 78,000 yuan, has no doubt. Also played an important role? 13,000 vehicles for the month. The sword is not old, should we praise or criticism? In contrast, we can also illustrate many negative examples. The carnival 1.3 was discontinued two years after its listing. The old Buick and Accord changed to vertical conversion with the appearance of new products. General Motors decided to stop selling the Chevrolet SUV and instead produce GL8 in Shenyang. The latest change is the new Blue Jays "Zhizun" listed, although Dongfeng Limited denied that the old models were discontinued, but the fully-reformed new products, its price has already covered the survival space of the 03 models Bluebird, stop production is only a matter of time sooner or later. According to common sense analysis, these vehicles have not made enough money yet. One obvious reason is the time difference: Santana and Xiali have been producing for nearly 20 years. In these 20 years, 80% of the time they have not encountered competition, they do not have to think about the production stoppage. The product maturity period and the recession period we usually talk about are the products that experience high temperature and high pressure in the market competition and reach the peak in the short term and then disappear as new competitors emerge. However, Santana is using a long time of unconventional rivers and lakes to slowly "know". A public relations representative of a Japanese company said gloomily: “Santana is a car that cannot be sold in Germany. It will be able to sell well in China, and it can now suppress our products. It is a great first step.” The era of the carnival was preceded by the West. Jena, followed by Vios, even the upper Excelle and Elantra are all pushing down the price. The carnival will squeeze the limited production line in the Chongqing factory and temporarily stop the unprofitable 1.3 models. It now appears that Changan Ford has sold more than 20,000 cars per month since the second quarter, which is impressive. It should be fortunate for the determination of their brave men to break their wrists. It is a realistic choice for all companies to occupy the market's commanding height in advance with new models. It stands to reason that today's market competition is no longer good for older cars. Why do they insist? Santana's situation is rather special. Shanghai Volkswagen's investment is too high. Santana is currently the longest bicycle production line in China. Then Toyota, Ford and Nissan entering the Chinese market are either cautious or have limited investment scales (such as Ford The special period of fine adjustment of investment policy before and after China's accession to the WTO. Usually a scale of 20,000 to 30,000 vehicles. It is relatively easy to adjust the strategy. It is very difficult for Shanghai Volkswagen to want to move and convert all of Santana to Jiangsu. The cost of levying the levies is too high. Although Shanghai’s public finances are relatively large, the loss since the “Black May” this year is not small. It is not worthwhile to just try to get the most out of the breath. Although the same is to maintain production, Xiali's situation is different from that of Santana. Tian Ming said: “This year Xiali stock has finally taken off ST's hat.” Xilin’s intention is that Xiali’s momentum is very good, but it is a serious illness and the strength is far worse than Shanghai Volkswagen. Therefore, for the old Shali who earned 18 years of steady profit for himself, the risk of stopping is too great. On the contrary, N3 is now coming out, turning the money made by old Xiali into a rich configuration (even the rear-view mirrors of luxury cars all have turn signals) and it can completely grab the share of compact cars. Compared with old Xiali, it is high. Putting the price on the upper layer of the market becomes a weapon, and the old and new Xiali can make more money. Longevity technique Everyone seems to think that Santana is not stopping production because of continuous improvement. In fact, the lifeline of the old car is covered by the superficial movements such as type change and price reduction. In this unique line of China’s secret life, it feeds the workers of the production plant, suppliers of parts and components, dealers with huge maintenance volumes, mainstream groups of second-hand car sales, and production and sales of non-OEM-supported social fake accessories, and even a few Stealing and disassembling criminal gangs. Santana's accessories were the first to taste the benefits of economies of scale. With 21 years of continuous production, the cost of accessories has also been declining. At the same time, a large number of parts suppliers themselves rely on Shanghai Volkswagen and Tianjin Xiali as the earliest joint ventures to form a scale, and form strength to accept orders from other brands. Shanghai Yanfeng, UMC, and Tianjin Denki are both grateful to the old models. Cars, if they do not have them one day, the scale will immediately come down, of course, the attraction of other vehicle brands will be much smaller. With the lower prices of accessories, old Xiali and Santana still have a few thousand dollars in profits, and relying on the cheaper spare parts and the huge market share, Shanghai Volkswagen's dealers have been able to earn enough maintenance profits. This is an advantage that other new brands do not enjoy. Although each city can buy cheap fake accessories, but some key parts and regular maintenance costs distributors can still earn at all levels, the old car maintenance costs are generally around 100 yuan, and similar Vios, Palio, Fit these vehicles, maintenance costs are usually 200 yuan to 400 yuan. The gap between these important components such as the engine and transmission is even greater. This gap has prompted new customers to buy old cars, and the steady increase in consumption of old cars has always kept the cost of accessories. Distributors and parts suppliers can guarantee that they will not be under thin profits. Take more cars. The old car market is always a black hole of interest, and older cars that can be repaired everywhere are especially popular in Santana. People who sell can cover their oysters, and those who buy them know that it is cheap and easy to repair. Anyway, the headlights can be replaced with 40 bucks for a new one. Theft gangs even aimed at Santana. On the list of stolen cars regularly announced by the Beijing Public Security Bureau, Santana is always a long string. Once Baoding and Langfang were once the key areas for sales, small bosses could buy cars for 20,000 or more, and some cars could re-enter the used car market or even rent the market, allowing some people to continue making money. With the profits of accessories under the sun, and the benefits of gray used cars, the old car market has maintained its popularity. However, the old car has a mixed user base. On the one hand, the traditional middle-aged customers regard Santana as the best official car, with enough power and image, and on the other hand, the new car brand with a production scale of less than 50,000. Too many people are crowded together and no one will become a new Santana. Therefore, the prices of new cars and accessories cannot be brought close to the old cars, and the old car users with the largest production scale cannot be shaken. This huge user base is unconscious. It has become a "royalist group" that supports backward products. As long as you add a power window and high-power air conditioners, they will be able to steadily buy old cars. “The technology we bring to China is the most advanced and the car is the latest generation.” These popular propaganda are increasingly attracting young users because they think that such propaganda is a respect, but when they really buy a car, Xiali, Santana can still attract a considerable number of young users because the cost of use is still crucial for young families. What they see is old cars that have changed their appearance and interiors, while merchants are using lifelines they can't see. Predicted production stoppages Santana B5 First off the assembly line: In April 1983, the reason for the suspension of production in the future was that 73,000 vehicles were sold in the first seven months of this year, which is still the highest in the country. However, this car has only produced more than 100,000 vehicles in Germany and is no longer produced in Brazil. The most important market in China is a private family, but Poussin is mainly faced with the official car group. The increase in new products will cause Santana's market space to gradually disappear. From the perspective of product upgrading, Santana 3000, which is also class B, can replace part of the Poussin market, and Poussin will be replaced by a new model in the future. It may fade out of the historical stage by changing its name. Accumulated Production: Nearly 2.1 Million Estimated Discontinued Time: Before 2008 Putin Put Production Time: Summer 2001 Discontinued Cause: As the first generation product of Yueda Kia, Pratt was the best-selling model in the 1980s, but When the market is outdated today, the car's market segment, its opponent's appearance and technical content are higher than Pratt, after the Dongfeng Yueda Kia joint venture, the car has not been improved, after the introduction of Maxima, Ka Wah OPTIMA has become a major product and has developed to a high end. The suspension of production of this product is a general trend. Guess the time of production suspension: Time of production of Skylark in 2006: The reason for the discontinued production in the mid-1990s: In the first half of this year, only 130 vehicles will be produced and 178 vehicles will be sold. Mini-car production at this scale can basically be regarded as discontinued production due to poor management and property rights. The result of the change is still not clear. The profit of military products cannot be transferred to civilian products under the present system. Therefore, Skylark may temporarily suspend production and wait for reorganization as it did for Alto, Jiangbei Machinery Factory. Guess the time of production suspension: POLO03 production time at any time: In the spring of 2002, the production will be suspended in the future. The reason for this is that in the first seven months of this year, 21,000 vehicles were sold, and the average monthly sales volume was only 3,000. The new POLO04 with variants will be on the market soon. As the public is aware of the disadvantages of its small cars in the world, especially in China, it is making every effort to build a new A-class platform for the PQ35. New cars including the C1, the new POLO and the new golf will replace the new ones. Prototype car. Guess the time of production suspension: In 2006, Bluebird No. 9 was put into production: Fengshen Automobile Co., Ltd. put into production in 2001 and made several changes later. The reason for the discontinued production in the future: The new Blue Jays (Bluebird) is equipped with e-navigation, Bluetooth car and other configurations, the power is stronger than the old models, the front face is even more turbulent, and it obviously puts pressure on the Excelle or even the Accord market. The key is its The price did not leave too much room for the old money. When the old models were put into operation, they were slightly behind. In the first half of the year, 16,000 units were produced, and 1,500 were in stock. The results were average and the subdivision space was gradually getting smaller. Bluebird's market demand will definitely tend to be smart. Guess the time of production stoppage: After 2004, Ingle production time: In September 1999, the reason for the suspension of production in the future: As the fruits of the capital operation of Yuejin Group and Malaysia's Golden Lion Group, the old car platform in Spain was moved to China. This car is in short supply. , and NAC's "manufacturing priority" of the traditional thinking, with the change in the awareness of the Nanjing Automobile market, Xinyatu and a number of new cars will start a new block of Inger's space will be completely blocked, move to production in Wuxi is likely to be just before the suspension of production Retired step. Guess when to stop production: 2006 (Zhang Huozhao Tiger)

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