Domestic air cargo faces transformation challenges

In recent years, the days of domestic cargoing and shipping have not been very good, and all have faced a transformation problem. If the direction of the transition is wrong, the subsequent roads will invest more and more wrongly. At that time, several cargo carriers directly or directly claimed that they would transition to “generalized logistics service providers” to provide one-stop logistics solutions. However, as long as China Eastern Airlines actually implemented the actual actions in the process of fulfilling its performance, several other cargo operations remained at all. During the concept and watching period, there is no systematic strategic plan.

Now it seems that the general direction of "summarizing logistics service providers" has no doubt. It is doubted whether domestic cargo shipping is now ready for this. As far as the development of the domestic cargo and airlines at that time and the environment in which they existed, they felt that they did not have the conditions to become a logistics service provider. What they probably did was probably to stabilize the existing shopping malls and cultivate good conditions. Internal strength, waiting for opportunities.

In order to stabilize the location of existing shopping malls, only the transaction flow is optimized, and the promotion of the business (flights, IT systems, etc.) is not yet satisfactory, and it is necessary to carefully observe the trend of the shopping malls in the coming years. The former can make you win in the moment, but the latter can let you lead the future.

Based on my understanding of air cargo, I think the following six factors will have a profound impact on the future of the professional competition format, and will not be observing:

One of the elements: "free trade area"

The State Council officially agreed to establish the China (Shanghai) Free Trade Zone on August 22. The pilot area plans include four customs special supervision areas such as Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone, Waigaoqiao Bonded Logistics Park, Yangshan Bonded Port Area and Shanghai Pudong Airport Inductive Bonded Zone, with a total area of ​​28.78 square kilometers.

Regarding the meaning of the establishment of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, Shenyin Wanguo’s analysts thought that “Shanghai Free Trade Zone is not about the 'guideline profit' of a single city, but rather a new round of experimental fields that are open to change throughout the country. The intentions include improving the function of free trade and, more importantly, piloting investment and financial liberalization, and expecting the interest rate market, the exchange rate market, the financial malls to behave differently, offshore affairs, the opening of the financial industry, foreign investment, and foreign investment. Investment, etc. can give priority to trials in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone. The areas that will benefit the Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone for the first time in short term are still gathered within the Free Trade Zone, and the Waigaoqiao District is expanded to the new port of Yangshan Port. With the airport bonded area, it will then be radiated to the entire economic zone in Shanghai and even the Yangtze River Delta region. With the gradual expansion of the new pilot area, the “guideline profitability” for openness and change is expected to radiate throughout the country.”

As early as before the “free trade zone” was officially approved, the Shanghai freight circle has begun to fret, and a representative sound is “if the free trade area is approved, the production company that had previously moved to the Midwest will present a 'backflow'. Shanghai Pudong Airport's freight location will be further consolidated and strengthened!” Even though this idea was questioned, the questioning point is still primarily based on regional political considerations. After the recent consolidation of the clauses in the Free Trade Zone, it was discovered that Two points can make this “backflow” activity impossible: First and foremost, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone’s policy of “spreading in the first line and keeping in line with the second line” makes it impossible for the production company to “backflow” into the free trade zone, otherwise, The province is only the logistics cost, and this is obviously not worthwhile under the big backdrop where the western plant was just completed and put into production; then the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is just a pilot, and this method will be implemented afterwards. The return flow still enjoys the same policy support as Shanghai, and it is still under relatively low manpower cost. After the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was approved by the State Council, Tianjin, Zhoushan, Guangzhou, Xiamen and other places may have prepared to submit proposals to the State Council and ministries and commissions on the transitional free trade zone in the bonded area.

In fact, the influence of the “free trade zone” on the format of the air cargo industry must be viewed from the following aspects: After the Shanghai Free Trade Zone matures, it will help to affect the surge in the volume of trans-shipment transactions. Pudong International Airport or other aircrafts may substitute Singapore and Incheon. Location; "Free Trade Zone" domestic planning expansion, not the same as the inter-regional coordination; the domestic "free trade zone" as the key to promote inter-regional cooperation in the trade, such as the promotion of ASEAN Free Trade Zone, to participate in the TPP (Pacific Partnership Agreement) Wait. This will reshape the global shipping format from scratch.

The second element: "rookie"

On May 28 of this year, Alibaba Group, Yintai Group, together with Fosun Group, Fuchun Group, Shunfeng Group, and Santongyida (Shentong, Yuantong, Zhongtong, Yunda) formed the Cainiao Network Technology Co., Ltd. China Smart Logistics Backbone (abbreviated as CSN). In the first phase of the Cainiao Network Project, it will invest RMB 100 billion. It is hoped that at the moment of 5-8 years, it will try its best to build open, socialized logistics infrastructure throughout the country and establish a support of an average daily RMB 30 billion (approximately RMB 10 trillion annually). The intelligent backbone network of online retail sales, "allows any region in China to deliver within 24 hours."

Since the launch of the rookie network, it has always been the focus of the media. Various analysis of its positioning is also full of major media. The rookie itself has not made us desperate. Since its establishment, the rookie has repeatedly been "taking the ground" in a good part of the country and proceeding. Combining the "green" truck resources, on September 3 Ali Logistics was merged into the "rookie" system. Follow-up Taobao, Yitao logistics related issues, and even the high German map and other resources can be combined.

However, if it is asked how much the "rookie" has impact on air cargo, objectively speaking, the impact in the short term is very limited, because there are many questions "rookie" has not yet wanted to understand, still "cross the river by feeling the stones", in this Under the background, the influence of "rookie" will not be released in the short term.

However, in the long run, the "rookie" uses warehousing for time, dismantling trunk lines (logistics), and thinking of allocating landings. With regard to the advantage of air freight forwarding companies transported on a long-distance basis, the impact is still very great. Perhaps the success of this approach is not necessarily a rookie, but companies that use the “regional warehousing plus floor-to-place allocation approach” as their mode of operation are bound to present “benchmarks,” and the diversion of their cargo to air cargo companies will be unusually significant. If air cargo companies did not prepare for "storage" or "response strategies" before then, they would be very compelled to do so.

Element 3: "E-commerce"

The impact of e-commerce on air cargo can be viewed in two aspects: domestic e-commerce and cross-border e-commerce.

The impact of domestic e-commerce is mainly reflected by the “express parcel” approach. The relevant comments in this area are now abundant and will not be repeated here.

The “cross-border e-commerce” was still in its infancy, and many aspects were not yet perfect. Coupled with factors such as logistics, despite the strong market demand, the planning was not yet very big. At that time, it was mainly based on the “overseas purchasing” method. Statistics in the middle of China’s e-commerce research show that in 2013, the mall’s purchase and purchase amount is expected to reach 74.4 billion yuan.

At that time, the "Overseas Purchasing" approach to logistics was mainly that after the buyers placed orders on overseas e-commerce sites, the receiving addresses were left at overseas transshipment points, and then the transfer company (usually Chinese) sent the goods to China. After the completion of the customs clearance procedure, the domestic express delivery company will complete the delivery of the domestic section. Prior to this type of goods are in accordance with the characteristics of "mail" customs clearance, after the introduction of new rules in 2012, the demand for such goods in the "Express" way to declare, so the capital rose, overseas purchasing services have been a great impact.

On the one hand, platform e-commerce providers such as Tmall and JD.com have opened overseas shopping channels. On the other hand, e-commerce websites run by overseas companies, including Showi.com and Lanting.com, are in full swing. In addition, more and more European and American small and medium companies want to enter China. The shopping mall (the e-commerce route is the most convenient), on the other hand, the lack of logistics services matching with cross-border e-commerce, the world's top four express delivery giants can do but offer too high; shipping cost is low, but the delivery cycle is too long; traditional aviation Freight companies have supporting resources, but lack of operational experience, significant mismatch between supply and demand, coupled with the "customs" bottleneck, making this business "beautiful and not fun."

With the continuous introduction of the corresponding supporting policy for cross-border e-commerce by the state and the “free trade zone” shape, the cross-border e-commerce logistics industry will usher in an opening period, and “trans-border e-commerce logistics service providers” may be able to change. It was a direction for the transformation of domestic air cargo companies at that time.

Element 4: "Lighting of Electronic Goods"

The impact of electronic goods on traditional air cargo companies is obvious. The proportion of air freight ties in Shanghai, Hong Kong, etc. can exceed 60%. There are many local airport cargoes that rely entirely on electronic products to survive, such as Tianjin (Samsung). LG), Zhengzhou (Apple), Chongqing (HP, etc.).

However, the lightness of e-commerce intelligence has led to a significant reduction in the “quality” of some of these products—the reduction in total weight, the increase in “bubble”, the increase in the loss caused by theft, and so on, making electronic goods in the air cargo category. The influence of the beginning gradually decreased.

Therefore, in the coming years, the location of airports, which are dominated by electronic goods in the supply of goods, will undergo wonderful changes. Air cargo companies need to think carefully about the “diversification of commodities” in advance.

Element Five: "Railway Freight"

According to the bid-winning plan announced by China Railway Construction and Investment Co., Ltd. in early August of this year, the railway department's bid for this time includes 226 buses of the 25T type and 500 vehicles of the 25G type (accessible equipment). The 28,900 trucks tendered and acquired by the truck contained 10,200 C70E general-purpose gondola cars and 10,200 P70 general-purpose box cars.

28,900 trucks! Although the goal of service is still primarily commodity-based, it has now released a signal that the railway sector will focus more on freight in the coming years. After the demolition of some railways, the railway company must be responsible for its own profits and losses. The delivery of traditional bulk commodities also involves some sensitive economic indicators and people's livelihood. As a result, there is limited room for price increases. At the moment, shipments of goods have provided many illusions for the expansion of their affairs. The collaboration between high-speed rail and courier companies and the launch of commodities such as Tiehai Intermodal will all have a definite impact on the existing affairs of air cargo companies. As far as the impact is concerned, it depends on the fulfillment of the “iron boss”.

Element Six: "Industrial Handling"

Putting this element in the end does not mean that it is not important, just because the comments on this aspect are relatively abundant in the industry.

At that time, the world experienced a total of four industrial shipments, and each industrial shipment was accompanied by adjustments to the logistics format. The starting point of the fourth industrial transport was mainly the southeastern coastal cities of China. In addition to the intentions of the Central and Western China shopping malls, Southeast Asian countries and Brazil, the developed countries of the United States and the United States also participated in the “backflow of manufacturing operations”. This trend is bound to have a profound impact on the format of future global air cargo shopping malls.