· Domestic oil prices will be lowered for the first time in more than seven months

The "Economic Information Daily" reporter learned from a number of social monitoring agencies that the domestic refined oil price will usher in a new round of adjustment window on February 9. It is expected that the downward adjustment is a high probability event. This is the first time in the year, and it is also more than 7 months. The first downward revision is expected to exceed 100 yuan, and the travel cost of the Spring Festival holiday will be narrowed slightly.

Since the domestic refined oil price was raised on January 26, the US crude oil output has further increased, and the downward pressure on international oil prices has increased. Although the oil product demand data during the period was strong, and Goldman Sachs Group raised its price expectations and brought optimistic expectations to the market, oil prices closed higher. However, after the US dollar bottomed out, the surge in active domestic drilling platforms in the United States further suppressed, and international oil prices fell again.

As of the close of February 6, the light crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $0.76 to close at $63.39 a barrel, down 1.18%. London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery fell $0.76 to close at $66.86 a barrel, down 1.14%.

As a result, the domestic reference crude oil rate of change has been continuously turned from negative to negative, resulting in the current round of price adjustment from the stranded expectations to decline. According to Zhuo Chuang Information, the crude oil change rate as of the 8th working day in China as of February 6 was -1.98%, and the corresponding gasoline and diesel reduction was 106 yuan/ton, which is far higher than the 50 yuan/ton prescribed by the National Development and Reform Commission. Price adjustment line.

Zheng Mingya, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, judged that from the news point of view, the negative news from the oil-producing countries and the bottoming out of the dollar will put some pressure on the trend of short-term crude oil. From a technical point of view, if the late market continues to lack favorable news injection, European and American crude oil will most likely form a wave of decline after falling below the support level. As a result, the domestic reference crude oil rate of change may continue to deepen, and the probability of the first downward adjustment of oil prices during the year will continue to increase.

Jin Lianchuang analyst Zou Xuelian also said that as of the seventh working day of February 6, the reference crude oil price average price was 66.53 US dollars / barrel, the rate of change -1.29%, the corresponding gasoline and diesel prices will be lowered 95 yuan / ton. There are only three working days left in the price adjustment window. Later, the crude oil will still maintain a weak operation. Therefore, the current round of oil price will be reduced to a high probability event. This will be the first round of downward adjustment during the year, and it will be lowered again after more than 7 months. Diesel reduction will exceed 100 yuan.

It is understood that since July 21, 2017, the domestic retail price of refined oil has opened nine price adjustment windows, and all of them have been cashed upwards.

“Although the current round of retail price reduction is limited, the end of the six-month long-term rise in retail prices is still gratifying for the end users. Moreover, this round of downgrade coincides with the Lunar New Year, private cars are increasing, and travel radius is expanding. The consumption of gasoline will increase, and the cost of travel will be reduced by a small amount. At the same time, there are still favorable discounts at gas stations, so the travel pressure is not great. However, during the holiday period, logistics and transportation basically stopped, and diesel prices fell slightly, which had little effect on the terminal. Snow Lotus said.