Early rice is facing upward pressure

Since the beginning of July, the purchase price of new rice has continued to rise steadily, while the futures price has remained within a certain range. The author believes that with the acceleration of the acquisition, early rice prices will oscillate upward, but the upside is limited.

The harvest is a foregone conclusion and the new rice is of good quality

According to the announcement made by the Ministry of Agriculture on August 1, the area of ​​early rice planting in the current year was stable, and the yield per unit was increased. The main producing areas generally showed a tendency of increasing production, and they would realize recovery and production increase. As of August 1, 92.9% of the country's early rice has been harvested. According to the forecast data of the Ministry of Agriculture in July, the total early- season rice production in the country may reach 32.74-33.4 million tons this year, an increase of 1.42-21.2 million tons from the previous year. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, the harvest of early rice in this year is a foregone conclusion after continuous winter and spring continuous drought and heavy rainfall.

Not only that, the growth of early rice was generally better than last year, and the seed-setting rate was higher. From the point of view of the quality of new purchases, the quality of the new rice is good, and the current rice production has a relatively high roughness of 76% or more. Most of them can meet the above-average standards, and the overall quality is significantly better than last year. The recovery of early rice production in the current year will, to a certain extent, maintain the stable price in the domestic rice market.

Accelerate the acquisition process and prices rise steadily

Judging from the current purchase price, the purchase price of early rice rose steadily. Since the early rice was listed, the price of 110 yuan per jin rose to 120 yuan per jin. Compared with the trend of sharp rise in early weeks after the early morning rice rose sharply, the trend of the price of early rice this year was relatively stable, and the purchase price rose steadily. According to monitoring by the China Grain Network Data Center, the average purchase price of early-season rice production areas was 2357.14 yuan per ton last week, up by 29.48 yuan per ton from the previous week; the export price of the scales in the production areas was 2,700 yuan per ton, up by 100 yuan per ton from the week before. On the whole, although there was a certain gap between the buying price and the buying price of the early rice, the early rice acquisition took a month, but the progress was not satisfactory and the acquisition period was extended. Recently, with the acceleration of the pace of entering the market by state-owned enterprises, the acquisition progress has accelerated, and the purchase price has opened up steadily, which has certain support for the early rice price.

Rising production costs, tight funding for acquisitions

Since the second half of last year, China’s price rise has accelerated noticeably and the inflation situation has become increasingly severe. It is precisely due to inflation that led to the stalemate between the purchase and sale of early rice, the purchase and sale of the two sides intensified the game to promote the new rice acquisition prices rose steadily. As a result of inflation, production costs have risen sharply, which has exacerbated farmers' reluctance to sell. Take Anhui Wuhu as an example, in 2011, the production cost per mu for early-season rice in Penghu County was invested by 714 yuan, an increase of 124 yuan over the previous year, an increase of 21.01%. The soaring production costs will inevitably dilute the profits of the farmers’ grain sales. Under the circumstances that various costs have risen sharply and inflation remains high, farmers are naturally not appreciative of the current price of early rice purchases. Also due to inflation, credit policy continues to shrink, resulting in higher loan costs for enterprises in agricultural issuance and restricting the enthusiasm of enterprises to enter the market. “Qianqin” phenomenon is frequent, many companies realize the pressure of repayment of loan repayment, and the ability to purchase into the market is constrained. . The pre-proposal plan can not be started, making the purchase of policy funds reduced. At present, grain processing enterprises are acquiring, processing, and selling more, and rely on the flow of funds to collect new grain. The number of grain companies that have purchased has not been improved. Taken together, early rice prices have some room to rise, but the increase will not be too large.

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