Energy Bureau Shi Lishan: China's photovoltaic industry to get rid of difficulties to go three ways
â— Cultivate and expand the domestic photovoltaic power generation market â— Improve the independent technological level of the photovoltaic industry â— Accelerate the reform of the power system and cultivate the distributed photovoltaic market After years of efforts, China has formed a relatively complete solar photovoltaic manufacturing industry system, but the technology and market rely mainly on foreign countries. The situation has not changed a lot; affected by the global financial crisis, the rise of international trade protectionism, and the dependence of photovoltaic products on the international market are difficult to sustain.
How to promote China's photovoltaic industry out of the predicament, one must focus on cultivating the domestic photovoltaic power generation market, build a photovoltaic manufacturing industry and service system based on the domestic and global; Second, we must strengthen technological innovation, and further improve the independent technology level and equipment manufacturing capabilities of the photovoltaic industry; It is necessary to accelerate the reform of the power system, cultivate the distributed photovoltaic market, and finally form a sustainable photovoltaic industry system based on the domestic market and serving the global market.
Photovoltaic power generation is the most promising new energy power generation technology. Solar energy is the most abundant and widely distributed renewable energy source. It has inexhaustible features. With the increase in global energy demand and the depletion of resources caused by fossil energy consumption and environmental pollution problems, solar energy and other renewable energy sources have increasingly attracted worldwide attention.
In recent years, the global photovoltaic power generation industry has developed rapidly, becoming the brightest spot for the development of new energy. By the end of 2011, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the world had reached 67.4 million kilowatts. In particular, the capacity of solar photovoltaic power generation in Germany has reached 24.7 million kilowatts. Photovoltaic power generation has been It accounts for 3% of its total power generation and plays an important role in the development of global photovoltaic power generation. Many international organizations believe that solar energy will be the main source of energy supply in the future and that by the end of this century, solar energy will account for over 50% of all energy consumption.
Solar photovoltaic power generation has obvious advantages. The first is rich in resources and will not be exhausted. It is renewable and clean energy. In particular, the photovoltaic power generation process does not consume water, and photovoltaic power plant construction is not constrained by water resources. Photovoltaic power plants can be built on any idle land, especially on desert land. Secondly, the installation and construction of photovoltaic cells is simple, the installation scale is flexible, and the operation and management are convenient. It is possible to use open spaces for construction, or combine them with buildings, and there is almost no need for operation and maintenance. The potential for development and utilization is great. Third, the output characteristics of photovoltaic power generation are consistent with the characteristics of the power load. In general, photovoltaic power generation is the largest during the noon time when the sun shines the most, and at this time it is the peak time of electricity consumption, which can effectively reduce the power system. The peak load pressure will help optimize the operation of the power system, save non-renewable fossil energy resources, and achieve energy conservation and emission reduction targets.
Solar photovoltaic power generation is the most promising new energy power generation technology. It will continue to grow and expand in the next few decades and will eventually become the main body of human energy. It can be said that who truly masters the photovoltaic power generation technology, whoever will grasp the initiative of energy development in the future.
The development of China's photovoltaic industry is faced with multiple difficulties. China has become a veritable photovoltaic battery manufacturing country, but most photovoltaic companies have difficulties in operating, many companies have begun to lose money, and the entire industry is facing severe problems.
The first is a serious surplus of production capacity. Globally, the global battery production in 2011 has reached 33 million kilowatts, the actual production capacity has reached 45 million kilowatts, and the overcapacity rate exceeds 50%. From the domestic situation, in 2011, China's photovoltaic cell production capacity has reached 35 million kilowatts, and it can meet Global photovoltaic cell installation needs.
According to the analysis of the current global economic development situation, the global photovoltaic power generation market will increase in the next few years, but the growth rate will not be too fast. In particular, the major global photovoltaic power generation market in Europe may experience a major decline in the past two years, coupled with trade protection. The rise of the doctrine, such as the United States' investigation of China's photovoltaic products, will affect the export of China's photovoltaic products. The problem of overcapacity of China's photovoltaic products will continue to exist in the near future.
The second is that the industry relies too much on foreign countries. China's solar photovoltaic industry has been a typical "three out" industry: First, the production of photovoltaic cells is mainly imported from abroad; Second, crystalline silicon materials are mainly imported from abroad; Third, the production of photovoltaic cell products are mainly exported abroad. In recent years, under the joint efforts of all parties, some Chinese enterprises have basically grasped the production technology of polysilicon materials, and the polysilicon output has met the production needs of 50% of China's photovoltaic cells, and the localization capacity of photovoltaic cell production equipment has also rapidly increased. The situation of “three heads out†has changed, but the status of the photovoltaic battery product market has not changed, and the external dependence of many key equipment and major raw and auxiliary materials is still high.
At present, China's photovoltaic cell products are mainly exported to developed regions such as Europe and the United States where photovoltaic power stations are built. The export volume accounts for more than 90% of China's photovoltaic cell production. Under the current situation where the growth of the international photovoltaic power generation market is weak and trade protection is intensifying, The development of China's photovoltaic industry has encountered major difficulties. The major manufacturing equipment required for the production of photovoltaic cells in China—such as thin-film battery production lines, hydrogenation furnaces for high-purity polysilicon production, silicon tetrachloride closed-loop recovery units, large-scale ingot furnaces, multi-wire cutting machines, PE CVD coating equipment, Automatic screen printing machines, automatic welding machines, etc. are mainly dependent on imports. The main raw materials needed for photovoltaic cell production, such as high-purity polysilicon, silver paste, EVA polymer resin, cutting fluid, etc., are highly dependent on foreign countries. For example, high-purity polysilicon imports in 2010 and 2011 were 4.75 million tons respectively. 64,800 tons.
Third, compared with the international advanced level, most of China's crystalline silicon production process performance still has gaps, the production cost is obviously high, and the market competitiveness is not strong. For example, the current international polysilicon market price has dropped from 50 to 90 US dollars per kilogram in 2010 to 20 to 30 US dollars, a decrease of more than 60%, and most of the production costs of polysilicon production companies in China are significantly higher than this price, it is difficult to Survive in the international market competition.
In addition, the current power management system is also an important factor that restricts the development of photovoltaic power generation.
Studying and formulating industrial development plans under the new situation is of utmost importance The development of China's photovoltaic industry has reached a critical period. It is of utmost importance to study and formulate industrial development plans under the new situation.
First, we must establish a stable and stable domestic photovoltaic power generation market to provide stable market support for industrial development.
In recent years, the development of China's photovoltaic industry has mainly benefited from the international photovoltaic power generation market, especially the rapid increase of European photovoltaic power generation markets such as Germany, Spain and Italy. However, due to the financial crisis, global trade protectionism has risen. In addition to the traditional trade protection measures such as anti-dumping and countervailing measures, developed countries have also tried to strengthen the industrial control dominance through the development of more stringent emission reduction rules, technical standards, labor standards, and social responsibilities to weaken the export competitiveness of developing countries. . The US anti-dumping investigation on China's new energy products such as photovoltaic cells since last year is an example.
Therefore, for quite some time in the future, China's photovoltaic industry relies mainly on the status of the international photovoltaic market is difficult to continue, we must focus on expanding the domestic photovoltaic market, providing basic support for the development of China's photovoltaic industry. China is a big country for energy consumption. Coal consumption accounts for more than 70% of energy consumption. The pressure on resources and the environment is huge. It is imperative to develop photovoltaic power generation. At present, photovoltaic power generation in Germany accounts for 3% of its total power generation. If China's photovoltaic power generation accounts for 3% of the total power generation by 2020, the photovoltaic power generation capacity will reach 300 billion kwh, and the installed PV capacity will be 200 million kilowatts. According to this target, 20 million kilowatts must be installed each year, which will provide important support for the development of China's photovoltaic industry.
Second, we must strengthen research and development of photovoltaic power generation technology to improve the core competitiveness of China's photovoltaic industry.
Photovoltaic power generation technologies include photovoltaic cell materials, photoelectric conversion efficiency, photovoltaic cell production equipment, integration and construction of photovoltaic systems, and operation management of power systems based on photovoltaic power generation systems. These technologies are still in the early stages of development. Although the global disparities are not very large, China's photovoltaic power generation technologies and their application levels are relatively backward, lacking independent innovation and development capabilities. To make China's photovoltaic industry invincible in the future development, we must put the research and development of photovoltaic power generation technology in a more prominent position.
How to increase the technological innovation in the photovoltaic industry? On the one hand, we must establish national-level technological innovation and R&D centers to solve the key and common technical problems in industrial development, promote the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, solve the technical upgrading and innovation of photovoltaic industry from materials to the whole industrial chain of the system, and realize domestic production of high-end manufacturing equipment. And breakthroughs in applied technologies; on the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen the company's technological innovation capabilities, and focus on promoting technology acquisition, absorption, and digestion in the fields of high-end equipment manufacturing, key components, and major auxiliary materials, and consolidate and develop core competitiveness; It is necessary to support the merger and reorganization of advantageous enterprises, eliminate backward enterprises with technology, and build several enterprise groups that have international competitiveness.
Third, we must accelerate the reform of the power system, open up the user-end power market, foster a distributed photovoltaic power generation market, and provide institutional guarantees for the development of the photovoltaic industry.
In recent years, China has adopted a concession tendering method to start the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power generation, and the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power stations using conventional power station construction and management methods has played an important role in promoting the construction of photovoltaic power plants in China. However, such solar energy utilization methods that focus on building large-scale photovoltaic power generation and long-distance high-voltage transmission are not scientific.
The main characteristics of solar energy resources are widely distributed. The advantage of solar photovoltaic power generation is distributed application. Users should build their own or cooperate with related investors, use small or no photovoltaic power systems installed on or near the top of buildings, and use low-voltage power distribution. Network, to achieve the nearest use of the nearest development. The generated electricity mainly meets the user's own electricity needs, the extra electricity is available on the Internet, and the electricity is exchanged with the grid, and the grid provides backup services. The user side builds a distributed photovoltaic power generation system, creates a market environment in which thousands of households install and use photovoltaic power generation systems, and finally forms a situation in which the amount of electricity consumed by the society increases and the amount of power supplied by the grid decreases.
In fact, the “Golden Sun Project†promoted in recent years is the application of this kind of investment subsidies to support customer-end distributed photovoltaic power generation systems, but the effect of implementation is not ideal. One of the main reasons is that it is constrained by the power management system. The current power management system in China uses the power grid to acquire all types of power generation from various types of power stations. It also features a single buyer and a single service provider that provides all users with power supply services. The power grid companies integrate electricity purchasing, transmission, distribution, and sales into one. With the main objective of expanding the market for electricity sales and increasing revenue from electricity sales, there will be natural resistance to any actions that affect its electricity sales and revenues. Due to the constraints of the current power management system, it is difficult for distributed photovoltaic power generation to be applied on a large scale.
To promote the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation, it is necessary to reform the current power management system, achieve the separation of transmission and power supply, open up the user-end power market, and turn the power grid companies into specialized companies that provide transmission services, with the amount of power delivered as profitable. The basis is to establish an open, transparent, and competitively ordered power market mechanism to provide important institutional guarantees for improving the efficiency of energy use and promoting the development of new energy sources. (Shi Lishan is the deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration)
How to promote China's photovoltaic industry out of the predicament, one must focus on cultivating the domestic photovoltaic power generation market, build a photovoltaic manufacturing industry and service system based on the domestic and global; Second, we must strengthen technological innovation, and further improve the independent technology level and equipment manufacturing capabilities of the photovoltaic industry; It is necessary to accelerate the reform of the power system, cultivate the distributed photovoltaic market, and finally form a sustainable photovoltaic industry system based on the domestic market and serving the global market.
Photovoltaic power generation is the most promising new energy power generation technology. Solar energy is the most abundant and widely distributed renewable energy source. It has inexhaustible features. With the increase in global energy demand and the depletion of resources caused by fossil energy consumption and environmental pollution problems, solar energy and other renewable energy sources have increasingly attracted worldwide attention.
In recent years, the global photovoltaic power generation industry has developed rapidly, becoming the brightest spot for the development of new energy. By the end of 2011, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the world had reached 67.4 million kilowatts. In particular, the capacity of solar photovoltaic power generation in Germany has reached 24.7 million kilowatts. Photovoltaic power generation has been It accounts for 3% of its total power generation and plays an important role in the development of global photovoltaic power generation. Many international organizations believe that solar energy will be the main source of energy supply in the future and that by the end of this century, solar energy will account for over 50% of all energy consumption.
Solar photovoltaic power generation has obvious advantages. The first is rich in resources and will not be exhausted. It is renewable and clean energy. In particular, the photovoltaic power generation process does not consume water, and photovoltaic power plant construction is not constrained by water resources. Photovoltaic power plants can be built on any idle land, especially on desert land. Secondly, the installation and construction of photovoltaic cells is simple, the installation scale is flexible, and the operation and management are convenient. It is possible to use open spaces for construction, or combine them with buildings, and there is almost no need for operation and maintenance. The potential for development and utilization is great. Third, the output characteristics of photovoltaic power generation are consistent with the characteristics of the power load. In general, photovoltaic power generation is the largest during the noon time when the sun shines the most, and at this time it is the peak time of electricity consumption, which can effectively reduce the power system. The peak load pressure will help optimize the operation of the power system, save non-renewable fossil energy resources, and achieve energy conservation and emission reduction targets.
Solar photovoltaic power generation is the most promising new energy power generation technology. It will continue to grow and expand in the next few decades and will eventually become the main body of human energy. It can be said that who truly masters the photovoltaic power generation technology, whoever will grasp the initiative of energy development in the future.
The development of China's photovoltaic industry is faced with multiple difficulties. China has become a veritable photovoltaic battery manufacturing country, but most photovoltaic companies have difficulties in operating, many companies have begun to lose money, and the entire industry is facing severe problems.
The first is a serious surplus of production capacity. Globally, the global battery production in 2011 has reached 33 million kilowatts, the actual production capacity has reached 45 million kilowatts, and the overcapacity rate exceeds 50%. From the domestic situation, in 2011, China's photovoltaic cell production capacity has reached 35 million kilowatts, and it can meet Global photovoltaic cell installation needs.
According to the analysis of the current global economic development situation, the global photovoltaic power generation market will increase in the next few years, but the growth rate will not be too fast. In particular, the major global photovoltaic power generation market in Europe may experience a major decline in the past two years, coupled with trade protection. The rise of the doctrine, such as the United States' investigation of China's photovoltaic products, will affect the export of China's photovoltaic products. The problem of overcapacity of China's photovoltaic products will continue to exist in the near future.
The second is that the industry relies too much on foreign countries. China's solar photovoltaic industry has been a typical "three out" industry: First, the production of photovoltaic cells is mainly imported from abroad; Second, crystalline silicon materials are mainly imported from abroad; Third, the production of photovoltaic cell products are mainly exported abroad. In recent years, under the joint efforts of all parties, some Chinese enterprises have basically grasped the production technology of polysilicon materials, and the polysilicon output has met the production needs of 50% of China's photovoltaic cells, and the localization capacity of photovoltaic cell production equipment has also rapidly increased. The situation of “three heads out†has changed, but the status of the photovoltaic battery product market has not changed, and the external dependence of many key equipment and major raw and auxiliary materials is still high.
At present, China's photovoltaic cell products are mainly exported to developed regions such as Europe and the United States where photovoltaic power stations are built. The export volume accounts for more than 90% of China's photovoltaic cell production. Under the current situation where the growth of the international photovoltaic power generation market is weak and trade protection is intensifying, The development of China's photovoltaic industry has encountered major difficulties. The major manufacturing equipment required for the production of photovoltaic cells in China—such as thin-film battery production lines, hydrogenation furnaces for high-purity polysilicon production, silicon tetrachloride closed-loop recovery units, large-scale ingot furnaces, multi-wire cutting machines, PE CVD coating equipment, Automatic screen printing machines, automatic welding machines, etc. are mainly dependent on imports. The main raw materials needed for photovoltaic cell production, such as high-purity polysilicon, silver paste, EVA polymer resin, cutting fluid, etc., are highly dependent on foreign countries. For example, high-purity polysilicon imports in 2010 and 2011 were 4.75 million tons respectively. 64,800 tons.
Third, compared with the international advanced level, most of China's crystalline silicon production process performance still has gaps, the production cost is obviously high, and the market competitiveness is not strong. For example, the current international polysilicon market price has dropped from 50 to 90 US dollars per kilogram in 2010 to 20 to 30 US dollars, a decrease of more than 60%, and most of the production costs of polysilicon production companies in China are significantly higher than this price, it is difficult to Survive in the international market competition.
In addition, the current power management system is also an important factor that restricts the development of photovoltaic power generation.
Studying and formulating industrial development plans under the new situation is of utmost importance The development of China's photovoltaic industry has reached a critical period. It is of utmost importance to study and formulate industrial development plans under the new situation.
First, we must establish a stable and stable domestic photovoltaic power generation market to provide stable market support for industrial development.
In recent years, the development of China's photovoltaic industry has mainly benefited from the international photovoltaic power generation market, especially the rapid increase of European photovoltaic power generation markets such as Germany, Spain and Italy. However, due to the financial crisis, global trade protectionism has risen. In addition to the traditional trade protection measures such as anti-dumping and countervailing measures, developed countries have also tried to strengthen the industrial control dominance through the development of more stringent emission reduction rules, technical standards, labor standards, and social responsibilities to weaken the export competitiveness of developing countries. . The US anti-dumping investigation on China's new energy products such as photovoltaic cells since last year is an example.
Therefore, for quite some time in the future, China's photovoltaic industry relies mainly on the status of the international photovoltaic market is difficult to continue, we must focus on expanding the domestic photovoltaic market, providing basic support for the development of China's photovoltaic industry. China is a big country for energy consumption. Coal consumption accounts for more than 70% of energy consumption. The pressure on resources and the environment is huge. It is imperative to develop photovoltaic power generation. At present, photovoltaic power generation in Germany accounts for 3% of its total power generation. If China's photovoltaic power generation accounts for 3% of the total power generation by 2020, the photovoltaic power generation capacity will reach 300 billion kwh, and the installed PV capacity will be 200 million kilowatts. According to this target, 20 million kilowatts must be installed each year, which will provide important support for the development of China's photovoltaic industry.
Second, we must strengthen research and development of photovoltaic power generation technology to improve the core competitiveness of China's photovoltaic industry.
Photovoltaic power generation technologies include photovoltaic cell materials, photoelectric conversion efficiency, photovoltaic cell production equipment, integration and construction of photovoltaic systems, and operation management of power systems based on photovoltaic power generation systems. These technologies are still in the early stages of development. Although the global disparities are not very large, China's photovoltaic power generation technologies and their application levels are relatively backward, lacking independent innovation and development capabilities. To make China's photovoltaic industry invincible in the future development, we must put the research and development of photovoltaic power generation technology in a more prominent position.
How to increase the technological innovation in the photovoltaic industry? On the one hand, we must establish national-level technological innovation and R&D centers to solve the key and common technical problems in industrial development, promote the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, solve the technical upgrading and innovation of photovoltaic industry from materials to the whole industrial chain of the system, and realize domestic production of high-end manufacturing equipment. And breakthroughs in applied technologies; on the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen the company's technological innovation capabilities, and focus on promoting technology acquisition, absorption, and digestion in the fields of high-end equipment manufacturing, key components, and major auxiliary materials, and consolidate and develop core competitiveness; It is necessary to support the merger and reorganization of advantageous enterprises, eliminate backward enterprises with technology, and build several enterprise groups that have international competitiveness.
Third, we must accelerate the reform of the power system, open up the user-end power market, foster a distributed photovoltaic power generation market, and provide institutional guarantees for the development of the photovoltaic industry.
In recent years, China has adopted a concession tendering method to start the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power generation, and the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power stations using conventional power station construction and management methods has played an important role in promoting the construction of photovoltaic power plants in China. However, such solar energy utilization methods that focus on building large-scale photovoltaic power generation and long-distance high-voltage transmission are not scientific.
The main characteristics of solar energy resources are widely distributed. The advantage of solar photovoltaic power generation is distributed application. Users should build their own or cooperate with related investors, use small or no photovoltaic power systems installed on or near the top of buildings, and use low-voltage power distribution. Network, to achieve the nearest use of the nearest development. The generated electricity mainly meets the user's own electricity needs, the extra electricity is available on the Internet, and the electricity is exchanged with the grid, and the grid provides backup services. The user side builds a distributed photovoltaic power generation system, creates a market environment in which thousands of households install and use photovoltaic power generation systems, and finally forms a situation in which the amount of electricity consumed by the society increases and the amount of power supplied by the grid decreases.
In fact, the “Golden Sun Project†promoted in recent years is the application of this kind of investment subsidies to support customer-end distributed photovoltaic power generation systems, but the effect of implementation is not ideal. One of the main reasons is that it is constrained by the power management system. The current power management system in China uses the power grid to acquire all types of power generation from various types of power stations. It also features a single buyer and a single service provider that provides all users with power supply services. The power grid companies integrate electricity purchasing, transmission, distribution, and sales into one. With the main objective of expanding the market for electricity sales and increasing revenue from electricity sales, there will be natural resistance to any actions that affect its electricity sales and revenues. Due to the constraints of the current power management system, it is difficult for distributed photovoltaic power generation to be applied on a large scale.
To promote the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation, it is necessary to reform the current power management system, achieve the separation of transmission and power supply, open up the user-end power market, and turn the power grid companies into specialized companies that provide transmission services, with the amount of power delivered as profitable. The basis is to establish an open, transparent, and competitively ordered power market mechanism to provide important institutional guarantees for improving the efficiency of energy use and promoting the development of new energy sources. (Shi Lishan is the deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration)
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