Some local car brands will eventually go out

The new factory has been continuously put into production, new projects have been laid, and new capital has been poured in. In recent years, the Chinese auto industry has given people the impression that there is an unfinished gold mine, and the world's gold miners flock to it. However, the performance of the Chinese auto market in 2011 made these gold diggers disappointed. Although the passenger car market as a whole has an increase of around 7%, this has made the automotive industry, which has become accustomed to the growth of the Chinese automobile market, grow at a rate of 20% or 30% per year.

After two consecutive years of frantic growth, the Chinese auto market seems to have lost momentum in 2011. In the first 11 months, the whole industry has grown by less than 3%. In a single season, it even experienced a rare negative growth in 10 years.

This year's Guangzhou Auto Show, car manufacturers are cautious about the future auto market, which is in stark contrast to the previous two years. At that time, the entire industry thought that the gold mine in China’s auto market was only just showing a tip, and the big head was still behind. Many people even thought that the annual sales of China’s future auto market could reach 40 million.

Unfortunately, their basis is too inadequate. They only see that our 1,000-person car ownership level is still very low, without taking into account the rigid constraints of social resources.

The Chinese auto market in 2011 began with the Beijing Yaohao limit license and ended with the withdrawal of various automobile consumption stimulus policies. Beijing's purchase restriction policy has been irritated by many people. However, this is a manifestation of the rigid constraints of social resources. It can be affirmed that cars will be restricted in more large cities in the future, and the only difference is the restriction of law.

Not only traffic jams, parking is also a big problem. The price of parking spaces in the residential area where I lived has risen from less than 100,000 yuan in 2004 to 400,000 yuan now, which is also a kind of rigid constraint on social resources.

From the end of the year to the end of the year, or in Beijing, continuous heavy fog weather has caused the PM2.5 terminology to quickly spread among Chinese. However, I really believe that all those who drive are not qualified to complain. Automobile exhaust can contribute “nothing” to air pollution. The environment is more of a rigid constraint.

Of course, there is oil. Near the end of the year, there were oil shortages in many places. Oil has always been the sword of Damocles hanging over the top of the auto industry. China's current foreign dependence on oil has exceeded half. If we sell 40 million cars each year, what will happen? I can't imagine.

In my opinion, the low growth of the auto market in 2011 is not an accidental downturn in the economic cycle. It is an inevitable consequence that the auto market in China is nearing its peak. Yes, I always believe that the peak of the Chinese auto market is about 2,000 to 23 million vehicles. After the high growth of previous years, it is difficult to reproduce. Of course, the auto market is not not developed, if the previous 10 years are rapid growth. "Golden Ten Years", then the next will be the "Platinum Ten Years" with rapid consumption upgrades.

The characteristics of rapid consumption upgrades have actually been evident this year. Although the overall market growth was weak, the growth of luxury cars and imported cars was even faster than before. Although the overall performance of passenger cars was general, SUVs and other subdivided markets have grown rapidly; although profits of many manufacturers have shrunk drastically, some manufacturers have also earned Pot full, pay for a few years a year...

Coming soon into 2012, the Chinese auto market as a whole is in the doldrums and the characteristics of rapid consumption upgrade will continue. It can be predicted that many manufacturers will experience a more painful year - especially local brands. In the past years, local brands have been nurturing customers for others. Long-term muddled into the ultra-low muddy, local brands simply can not retain the transfer of customers, the future, how to meet the needs of consumers to upgrade, retain the transfer of customers, will be the biggest challenge for local brands. The basic design, R&D, and manufacturing processes are not supported by the foundation, and local brands have a long way to go. In a high-growth market, we can “mine,” and everyone is better than anyone who has a lot of laps and who has a big rig; but in a fast-upgrading market, we need to make steel, and everyone’s technology will be better. Who's brand is ringing.

To be sure, there are some local auto brands that will be eliminated in the future. However, I also believe that Chinese auto brands will surely grow into true international giants. A 20 million-class domestic market will surely have the birth of several local auto giants. Who can become China's "big three" in the future? I cannot dare to swear, but those “project companies” who are keen to dress and make quick money for people are certainly insignificant—regardless of its administrative level.