Voice: Impact of Japan's Super Earthquake on China's Auto Market

â–  Japanese car companies in China official statement Honda China: Honda China official said in an interview with the media: production is not affected, and the Japanese headquarters is also very smooth, for the recent plan to increase production, the person in charge said : "No related plans have been received at this time."

Toyota China: Toyota Motor Specialist and Chinese Minister Sasaki Sasaki said in an interview with reporters: The earthquake does not affect the company's China strategy. Toyota Motor’s latest "Global Vision for Development" shows that emerging markets such as China will become the focus of its business development in the future. In 2010, Japan, the United States, Europe, and other emerging markets accounted for 60:40 of the total sales of automobiles, but in the future, with the adjustment of business priorities, the ratio will be adjusted to 50:50, and will strive to be in 2015. Increase Toyota's global sales to 9 million vehicles. The Chinese market will become the top priority for traction Toyota development. It is expected that by 2015, the Chinese market will increase its sales to 15%.

Zhengzhou Nissan: The person in charge of Zhengzhou Nissan said in an interview with the media: At present, the company is operating normally and there have been no abnormalities. As for whether the earthquake will lead to a tight supply of parts and components for domestic companies, the source said that the supply of spare parts for Zhengzhou Nissan’s vast majority of its models has been localized. Only one NV200 model uses more imported zeros. Accessories, but it is initially estimated that the current inventory of spare parts can still be used for one month.

Southeast Mitsubishi: The staff of the South East Motor Public Relations Group recently stated that Mitsubishi Motors is located in the southern part of Japan. The earthquake has had little impact on Mitsubishi Motors. At present, the business of Southeast Auto is normal. The engines and transmissions of the wing-wing model are imported components, but for now, it is basically unaffected.

Guangqi Honda: General Manager Chen Guang of Guangzhou Automobile Honda Automobile Co., Ltd. said that currently more than 90% of Guangben's auto parts are purchased in China, and only a few key parts are imported from Japan. In the short term, the Japanese earthquake will not have any impact on the production of Kuremoto.

FAW Toyota: The relevant person in charge of FAW Toyota's local dealers believes that "the impact of Toyota's imported vehicles will appear, and Toyota's supply of spare parts in China should also be affected, at least in terms of transportation."

Dongfeng Nissan: In an interview with the media, Dongfeng Nissan executives said that due to the production of mid- to high-end models such as Tianmu and Qijun, some parts and components need to be imported, so it will be inevitable that this will be affected by the shutdown of the Nissan local plant.

GAC Toyota: Li Na, sales manager of GAC Toyota Furi, said in an interview with the media: At present, the Japanese automaker’s localization rate is relatively high. Japan’s earthquake did not substantially affect domestic production and sales, but imported Toyota Cool Road Ze, land cruisers, and overbearing vehicles. , Prius and other models may appear out of stock.

FAW Mazda: FAW Mazda Motor Service Minister Du Wenbo said in an interview with the media: As Mazda is headquartered in southern Japan, the earthquake had little impact on Mazda vehicles, but parts supply was affected. At present, various businesses of FAW Mazda are normal. In the next few weeks, the speed of shipment of some imported functional components will be slowed down, and other major components have already been domesticated and will not be affected.

Changan Suzuki: The person in charge of Chongqing Changan Suzuki Automobile Co., Ltd. said in an interview with the media: Since Changan Suzuki has cultivated in China for many years, almost all of it has achieved local production and will not affect normal production due to earthquakes. In addition, the impact of the earthquake on Changhe Suzuki has not yet emerged.

Changhe Suzuki: Director of the public relations department of Changhe Suzuki Automobile Co., Ltd. Sales Department Wang Shuhong said in an interview with the media: At present, Changhe Suzuki’s vehicle and its main components have basically been domesticated, and only the new products under development have adopted departments. Imported components. Judging from the current situation, the impact of the earthquake on Changhe Suzuki has not yet emerged. As Suzuki's headquarters is located in the southern part of Japan, this earthquake has little impact on Suzuki Motors.

â–  Institutional Review Guotai Junan Securities: For the fundamentals of rubber, the Northeast is Japan's major manufacturing base. As of today, major Japanese auto companies have announced production shutdowns. Due to the explosion of several major nuclear power plants, the government has decided that some regions will start to switch off in the next week. This may affect the start of the factory and the consumption of rubber.

Soochow Futures: The earthquake first hit Japan's manufacturing industry. Toyota shut down three factories in the earthquake zone. Honda has announced that all factories in the earthquake zone will stop production. Nissan will directly declare that all factories in the country have stopped production. Post-disaster reconstruction will take less than a year, so global tire demand will drop sharply in the short term.

China Merchants Securities: We believe that the earthquake in Japan will play a role in driving the prices of auto plates and plates in the short term. In the medium term, post-disaster reconstruction will boost demand for building materials. Maintain “recommended” investment rating for the industry.

GF Securities: The impact of the earthquake on the Japanese auto industry is obvious. The impact on the Chinese auto industry depends on the duration of the impact of the Japanese auto industry. If the production stop time is short, it will have little impact on the Chinese auto industry. The long-term effects need to be observed (earthquake impact is a systematic project involving macroscopic and multi-industry chains, and comprehensive analysis is difficult). Maintain the optimism that the logic of high-end passenger cars in Europe and the United States will remain unchanged. At the same time pay attention to opportunities for new energy vehicles related stocks.

UBS Securities: The earthquake is likely to affect the global automotive market. The earthquake in the northeastern Japan has caused the closure of some complete vehicles and parts factories. The loss of personnel and equipment and workshops is still under evaluation. Based on geographical distribution, Nissan, Toyota, and Denso are the most affected. The additional impact of the quake also included the inventory that was ready for shipment, the closure of the port and the obstruction of the road. The Japanese market accounts for 55% of the global output of Japanese auto companies. Global automobile production is at risk due to mutual contact.

Huatai United Securities: The earthquake will have a negative impact on the Japanese economy in the short term. The Japanese GDP growth rate will decline significantly in the first and second quarters. The strong earthquake will prompt Japanese insurers to sell overseas assets and turn to domestic companies to pay for insurance premiums. In particular, industries such as electronics and autos that are seriously affected by the disaster, overseas capital flows will lead to a short-term appreciation of the yen, and it is expected that the appreciation pressure of the RMB will increase. .

Guosen Securities: The short-term earthquake will lead to the suspension of production or production cuts for some domestic vehicles and parts and components companies in Japan. This will have a short-term impact on China's imported vehicle and spare parts market supply. Short-term supply of Japanese imported vehicles will be tight and prices may increase. The product structure and positioning of domestic cars is lower than that of Japanese imported cars, and there is a certain degree of differentiation. The substitution effect of imported vehicles in the short term to domestic Japanese joint ventures is also relatively limited; in addition, the supply of a few parts of Japanese JVs may be affected. However, we believe that Japan's joint-venture vehicle factory in China has entered for many years and has also established a joint venture or wholly-owned parts and components supporting system in China. The overall domestic production rate of parts and components is also relatively high, and the impact of imported parts supply shortages is quite limited.

CITIC Securities: The earthquake will have a major impact on Japanese automakers in the short-term. The suspension of production by Japanese auto companies may lead to a decline in global market position, especially in the United States. In the short term, the earthquake will have little impact on domestic Japanese joint ventures. As the major domestic Japanese joint ventures have achieved an average localization rate of 70%-80%, and the average international safety stocks are 1-2 months, the impact on the supply of spare parts for domestic Japanese joint ventures is not significant in the short term. According to the results of the communication with relevant companies, the major companies currently have no production cut-off plans.

■ Expert Comments Wang Guangke (Automotive After Market Expert): The disaster in Japan caused huge loss of personnel and property to Japan. But for the automotive industry, it is indeed a rare opportunity to enter. If China’s automotive supplies companies can seize this opportunity, China’s auto supplies may have a significant increase in brand awareness and market share in Japan.

Sun Tianfu (famous economist): The earthquake will have no major impact on China's domestic stock market. China's domestic auto parts manufacturers can increase production capacity and increase exports to the Japanese market.

Wen Tianna (Hong Kong Economic and Financial Experts): The earthquake in Japan will not slow down the pace of economic recovery in Asia and will not create a "domino effect" in the market. The strong yen will reverse in the short term. The stronger US dollar will have a more significant impact on Hong Kong stocks in the coming week, but the long-term impact will not be obvious. The Great Japan Earthquake will not have a major impact on the global economy and will not have much impact on China's economy. China's exports may even temporarily benefit.

Qiu Lin (Economist): We cannot underestimate the impact of the Great Japan Earthquake on the Chinese economy. The great earthquake in Japan not only caused the Japanese economy to be hit hard, but at the same time, the blow to Asian and even global confidence is inevitable. As the world’s leading industrial power and export powerhouse, the great earthquake that Japan has suffered will certainly have a visible impact on China’s economy and industry. In this regard, government management should pay great attention to it and actively implement emergency measures.

Chen Fengying (Director of the Institute of Economic Research, Institute of Modern International Relations): Japan’s short-term consumption will shrink, Japan’s auto industry will suffer production, will prompt China’s joint ventures to increase production, and then return it to Japan. Japan’s necessities will also increase as Japan’s post-earthquake reconstruction, and this year China’s trade deficit with Japan will decrease.