2013 sales growth of the automotive industry picked up the heavy truck bear the brunt

Car price system is reshaping. Since 2011, the year-on-year growth rate of auto retail sales has been declining; while mainstream passenger car companies have entered an expansion period, new production capacity has gradually been released; imported cars have flooded into the Chinese market, and under the condition of unbalanced supply and demand, price reduction has become a trend. This round of price cuts is a reshaping of the car price system.

Passenger car industry structure adjustment. Under the trend of price cuts, mid-to-high end models have seen significant price cuts and their profits have been squeezed, but they will still be better than mid- to low-end models. Affected by the Diaoyu Islands incident, the production and sales of Japanese passenger cars have fallen sharply and will continue for some time, and other national brands will benefit. A large number of new models have been launched to lay the foundation for the rapid growth of the SUV market.

The overcapacity of trucks will end. The heavy-duty card market experienced explosive growth from 2009 to 2010, but excess capacity led to a decline in heavy truck sales thereafter. By simulating the growth rate of land freight demand and comparing it with transport capacity, it shows that both will be re-matched and the excess capacity will end. It is expected that with the arrival of the seasonal demand peak in the first half of next year, heavy truck sales will re-enter the growth channel.

Dealer operating environment will improve. In the long run, there may be adjustments in the value distribution of the automobile industry chain. In the short term, the dealer's operating environment will improve in 2013.

Energy-saving and environment-friendly products have long-term development potential. In terms of energy conservation and environmental protection, the upgrading of traditional internal combustion engines and related powertrains is the most direct and easiest way to realize them. Under the pressure of energy conservation and environmental protection standards, there is tremendous growth potential in the high-performance internal combustion engine systems and related product markets.

Investment Strategy. In view of the rebound in sales growth, the market environment will improve and the industry rating will be upgraded to “outperform the market”. It is recommended to focus on growth companies that benefit from segmented industry growth or the launch of new heavyweight models, as well as leading companies with technological advantages; truck companies benefiting from the recovery of macroeconomic stabilization and product sales that are expected to resume growth; products that meet the upgrade trend and accelerate internationalization And the diversified parts and components companies; with the increase in sales growth, the dealers have improved their business environment.

Risk warnings: (1) policy changes; (2) sales growth not meeting expectations; (3) fierce market competition and lower than expected price cuts.

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