2011 Potash Market Forecast: Domestic prices will be higher than 2010
With the development of the fertilizer industry, the current market is often unpredictable and unpredictable. The special varieties of potash fertilizer have both the characteristics of the industry's own development, and often cannot be separated from the effects of other varieties. Looking back at the potash market in 2010, the price of potash fell all the way in the first half of the year, and it maintained a strong rise in the past four months after “rebounding†in the middle of the year. In the first week of the new year, the market remained calm. To this end, the reporter interviewed the factors that will affect the potash market this year, and conducted a comparative analysis of the market changes in 2010.
When the big contract or the first adjustment just entered 2010, the Chinese fertilizer industry has ushered in good news. The Chinese Potash Negotiation Team finally signed a contract for annual potash fertilizer importation with BPC at the station price of US$350/ton, almost It is the lowest price in the world. This undoubtedly brought great benefits to the promotion of potassium in agriculture in China. Of course, it also means that the base price of imported potassium fertilizer is relatively low.
Many people are looking forward to the results of the import negotiations this year, hoping that the negotiation price can be set first for the potash market. According to Ji Yuangong, chief representative of Russia Ural Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., “Although this year's final contract price cannot be predicted, it can be determined that it will be higher than last year's level.â€
Uncontrollable factors still exist Many uncontrollable factors led to the decline of potash prices in the first half of 2010 – after the Spring Festival, “Southern Drought and North Snow†postponed the use of fertilizer season, and poor rail transport in Qinghai also limited the arrival volume. For railway transportation, potash fertilizer manufacturers, especially small-scale potash fertilizer companies in Qinghai Province, often feel helpless. Even facing the market that is in short supply, they cannot digest the inventory and cannot meet the market demand in time. In order to ensure spring plowing, the Ministry of Agriculture issued a document in late December 2010 to ease the railway capacity in Xinjiang in 2011 and Qinghai. Potash companies in Qinghai Province have reported that shipments have improved in recent days. However, it is still a matter of concern for some companies that the Spring Festival will not restrict freight transportation and whether future transportation support can continue to support transportation.
However, unlike 2010, the rising cost of this year is an important factor supporting the price of the entire fertilizer industry.
The demand for compound fertilizer production is the most critical The price of potash began to rebound in mid-June 2010. In addition to sudden rainfall in Golmud, the supply of domestic potash was tight, and the bigger promoter was the increase in demand for start-up of compound fertilizer companies. In the middle of the year, the tariff gate was opened, and the price of phosphate fertilizer and nitrogen fertilizer as raw materials for compound fertilizer production also rose. At the same time, we ushered in the period of autumn cultivating and preparation of fertilizer, and the compound fertilizer factory took the goods positively. After October, the compound fertilizers began to be cautious, and afterwards they mostly took a wait-and-see attitude. Therefore, the price of potash fertilizer also gradually stabilized.
With regard to the current state of mind of the compound fertilizer producers, the industry has expressed no concern because the market will increase its trading volume before the Spring Festival and the market will soon open after the Spring Festival. According to a person in charge of the Xinjiang State-run Lop Nur, after prices of agricultural products have experienced skyrocketing growth in 2010, they have been operating at a high level and it is difficult to fall back to the level of early 2010. Man Xiu, general manager of Manzhouli Water-Culvert Trade Co., Ltd. said: “Now it's time to get ready for the fertilizer season, but everyone is still watching. This is because at the end of last year, a lot of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers were exported, and some dealers couldn’t get the goods. Potash is an accessory, no matter if the price is high or low, they will not take potash fertilizer without taking phosphate fertilizer and nitrogen fertilizer, but after the Spring Festival, the market can really start, and this year's potash price will certainly rise, but it is estimated that the rate will not be too big. ."
When the big contract or the first adjustment just entered 2010, the Chinese fertilizer industry has ushered in good news. The Chinese Potash Negotiation Team finally signed a contract for annual potash fertilizer importation with BPC at the station price of US$350/ton, almost It is the lowest price in the world. This undoubtedly brought great benefits to the promotion of potassium in agriculture in China. Of course, it also means that the base price of imported potassium fertilizer is relatively low.
Many people are looking forward to the results of the import negotiations this year, hoping that the negotiation price can be set first for the potash market. According to Ji Yuangong, chief representative of Russia Ural Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., “Although this year's final contract price cannot be predicted, it can be determined that it will be higher than last year's level.â€
Uncontrollable factors still exist Many uncontrollable factors led to the decline of potash prices in the first half of 2010 – after the Spring Festival, “Southern Drought and North Snow†postponed the use of fertilizer season, and poor rail transport in Qinghai also limited the arrival volume. For railway transportation, potash fertilizer manufacturers, especially small-scale potash fertilizer companies in Qinghai Province, often feel helpless. Even facing the market that is in short supply, they cannot digest the inventory and cannot meet the market demand in time. In order to ensure spring plowing, the Ministry of Agriculture issued a document in late December 2010 to ease the railway capacity in Xinjiang in 2011 and Qinghai. Potash companies in Qinghai Province have reported that shipments have improved in recent days. However, it is still a matter of concern for some companies that the Spring Festival will not restrict freight transportation and whether future transportation support can continue to support transportation.
However, unlike 2010, the rising cost of this year is an important factor supporting the price of the entire fertilizer industry.
The demand for compound fertilizer production is the most critical The price of potash began to rebound in mid-June 2010. In addition to sudden rainfall in Golmud, the supply of domestic potash was tight, and the bigger promoter was the increase in demand for start-up of compound fertilizer companies. In the middle of the year, the tariff gate was opened, and the price of phosphate fertilizer and nitrogen fertilizer as raw materials for compound fertilizer production also rose. At the same time, we ushered in the period of autumn cultivating and preparation of fertilizer, and the compound fertilizer factory took the goods positively. After October, the compound fertilizers began to be cautious, and afterwards they mostly took a wait-and-see attitude. Therefore, the price of potash fertilizer also gradually stabilized.
With regard to the current state of mind of the compound fertilizer producers, the industry has expressed no concern because the market will increase its trading volume before the Spring Festival and the market will soon open after the Spring Festival. According to a person in charge of the Xinjiang State-run Lop Nur, after prices of agricultural products have experienced skyrocketing growth in 2010, they have been operating at a high level and it is difficult to fall back to the level of early 2010. Man Xiu, general manager of Manzhouli Water-Culvert Trade Co., Ltd. said: “Now it's time to get ready for the fertilizer season, but everyone is still watching. This is because at the end of last year, a lot of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers were exported, and some dealers couldn’t get the goods. Potash is an accessory, no matter if the price is high or low, they will not take potash fertilizer without taking phosphate fertilizer and nitrogen fertilizer, but after the Spring Festival, the market can really start, and this year's potash price will certainly rise, but it is estimated that the rate will not be too big. ."
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