Analysis of the Contradiction between the Changing Situation of China Machine Tool Industry

At present, the market share of the domestic metal processing machine tool output value continues to increase, reaching 70.1%; the domestic market share of CNC machine tool production value reached 62%. In China's machinery industry, the machine tool industry is in a special position as a "tool mother machine". Most of its demand orders come from various types of enterprises in the machinery industry; at the same time, its level is also of special importance to the upgrading of all industries and industries in the machinery industry. The significance. Therefore, the development of the machine tool industry depends not only on the overall development of the Chinese machinery industry, but also on the healthy development of the entire industry.

“The integration and technology compounding of domestic machine tools has become one of the most active trends in the development of CNC machine tools.” China Machine ToolNet believes that compared with the situation of China’s machinery industry, the changes in the situation and the contradictions faced prominent. Data from the China Machinery Industry Federation shows that during the 10 years of the “10th Five-Year Plan” and “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, the Chinese machine tool industry achieved a sustained ultra-high speed development. Until the first half of 2011, the demand was still very strong. Machine tool companies are in a state of exuberant production and sales; but from the second half of last year, demand growth has slowed down significantly, new orders have fallen sharply, economic conditions have gradually become severe, and profit margins have continued to decline. Despite the rapid growth in the first half of the year, the growth rate of the total output value of China's machine tool industry last year fell from nearly 39% at the beginning of the year to 32.5% at the end of the year, and the profit growth rate has dropped dramatically from 57.5% at the beginning of the year to 29.8% at the end of the year. It can be seen that the situation of the Chinese machine tool industry changed drastically last year.

According to the data, in 2011, China's machine tool industry imported 20.7 billion U.S. dollars, while exports accounted for 7.3 billion U.S. dollars, and the import and export deficit was as high as 13.4 billion U.S. dollars. It can be seen that the demand for China's machine tool products is objective. It is only that domestic machine tool companies cannot fully satisfy them; if it can achieve the basic balance between imports and exports, the Chinese machine tool industry could increase sales of US$13.4 billion by the end of last year. Last year, the trade deficit between China's machinery industry and the world’s recognized mechanical industrial powers Germany and Japan were as high as 49.2 billion U.S. dollars and 57.8 billion U.S. dollars, respectively; last year, the average export price of CNC machine tools in China was only 33,000 U.S. dollars per unit, while the import unit price was 219,000 U.S. dollars. USD / Taiwan, the unit price of exports is only 15% of imports; "All these are clearly telling us that there is still a big gap between the technological level of China's machinery industry and the international advanced level."

According to the latest statistics compiled by the China Machine Tool Industry Association, the monthly statistics of some key enterprises in the machine tool industry (January-June 2012) show that the sales revenue of 122 key metal-cutting machine tools in China from January to June decreased year-on-year. 16.6%, total profit decreased by 48.2% year-on-year.

In fact, as early as before the publication of the data, the Machine Tool Association had organized key enterprises of the industry to hold economic symposia. Participants generally believed that the current economic situation of the machine tool industry enterprises is very severe, and economic indicators such as orders, operating income, profits and taxes are widespread. The rate of decline was more than 20% to 30%, and stocks increased significantly.

Moreover, all companies believe that the current economic development trend, this decline is still far from the bottom. Judging from the recent situation, it is unlikely that there will be a recovery in the next two years. Therefore, the participants’ general confidence in the economic performance in the next year or two is insufficient.

In fact, the weak development trend of the industry has already appeared in the first quarter of this year. However, the short-term recovery in March gave the industry people a slight illusion, but the actual situation is that the industry development indicators have not been steadily rising, but they have turned back to continue to callback.

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of the year increased by 7.8% year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate was 8.1% in the first quarter and 7.6% in the second quarter. For the first time in three years, the quarterly growth rate of China's economy fell below 8% for the first time. In July, the official manufacturing purchasing managers index was 50.1, approaching the threshold. According to the analysis of China Machine Tool Network (Ollebo.com), the investment in fixed assets of some machine tool industry users, such as agricultural machinery, internal combustion engines, and petrochemical industries, has dropped from the same period of last year.

Of course, there are also some factors that are not conducive to the growth of China's machine tool output value:

For example, from the second half of 2011, more new orders for machine tools were added. By mid-year, the situation is: “From the report of the association's key liaison companies, over the past few years, heavy-duty machine tool companies have been holding orders over their one-year production capacity. Hand-held orders often span production capacity for half a year. Today's situation is completely different. Better companies only have orders for half a year."

There will also be a slight drop in the growth rate of China's economy and industry in 2012, which will result in a decline in the production and sales of some of the machine tools and the profit growth of the machine tool industry in 2012 in the context of a decline in 2011. The decline in corporate profits and growth in production and sales will affect the reasonable growth of investment in machine tool equipment.