Fastener market development trend forecast

In 2012, it was a challenging year for the fastener industry. China's machinery parts statistics show that in 2012, the fastener industry experienced a negative growth, which was a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, mainly due to insufficient market demand. In particular, after the fasteners suffered international anti-dumping, export sales declined. . At the same time, through the integration of customs data, the author found that China's fastener import and export volume both fell in 2012: export volume was 2.4461 million tons, and foreign exchange earned through exports was US$4.516 billion, which was a decrease of 4.8% and 2.4% year-on-year, respectively; fastener imports were 25.24 million tons, the import amount of 2.892 billion US dollars, down 4.7% and 2.2% respectively.

Standing at the beginning of the new year, we cannot but ask: In 2013, will the global economy improve? Where will the fastener industry go? Is it more miserable than 2012, or will it shine brightly? What do you think about the 2013 fastener market trends in China?

[domestic market article]

Estimated GDP growth is about 8% Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that GDP growth in 2012 was 8.1% in the first quarter, 7.6% in the second quarter, and 7.4% in the third quarter, and stabilized and recovered in the fourth quarter, with the GDP exceeding 500,000 for the whole year. Billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.

The Chinese Academy of Sciences' latest release of "2013 China Economic Forecasting and Outlook" predicts that China's economic recovery curve will show an N-type in 2013. The growth rate will increase in the first half of the year, and there may be a correction before and after the middle of the year. The fourth quarter may rise again. The recovery process may occur. Fluctuations and twists but the trend is upwards. In January 2013, the initial value of HSBC's manufacturing PMI rebounded for five consecutive months and hit a two-year high of 51.9, which made a good start for 2013. Although external demand is still weak, domestic companies' restocking activities will help the recovery to continue.

It is expected that if the European debt crisis does not deteriorate seriously, the economy will continue to pick up in 2013, but the recovery will be more moderate, GDP will increase by about 8%, slightly higher than the previous year, and the CPI may rebound from about 2.7% for the whole year of 2012. About 3.5%, but there is little risk of a substantial increase. Although China's fastener industry suffered a setback in 2012, the whole industry is expected to achieve steady growth in 2013. It is expected that by 2013, the production and sales of fasteners will reach 7.2-7.5 million tons.

Investment Growth "Eastern Slow West"

The data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that investment in fixed assets in eastern, central and western regions increased by 17.8%, 25.8%, and 24.2% year-on-year in 2012, with investment growth in the central and western regions far faster than in the east. Investment growth has already picked up, but it is expected that the “4 trillion” market will not be reproduced in 2013.

Investment in the central and western regions is expected to continue to maintain a relatively high growth rate. The reasons are as follows: First, policy support. The state will implement in depth a new round of strategy for the development of the western region and continue to increase the central government's investment in the western region. The second is that industrial transfer drives investment expansion. Due to the different stages of development and the impact of industrial transfer, the central and western regions have more room for investment expansion. The third is the poor corporate efficiency, more cautious investment, and greater impact on developed regions in the east.

Benefiting from the favorable investment environment formed by the superposition of the government's general election and the investment and construction cycle, and the series of tax reduction policies supporting small and micro enterprises, 2013 will stimulate investment expansion. However, in view of the declining economic growth potential, cyclical investment slowdown, and unabated real estate regulatory policies, it is expected that the nominal investment in fixed assets will increase by about 22% in 2013, with an actual increase of approximately 19.6%. The trend of the central and western regions above the east remains. In the “two sessions”, the vast majority of the central and western provinces set a target of 20% for investment in 2013, Sichuan and Chongqing set at 14% and 18%, while the eastern coast has only reached 20 in Fujian, Liaoning, Hainan and Guangxi. %s level. The most developed areas such as Beijing have already dropped to 9%, while Shanghai and Zhejiang have not announced quantitative targets for investment growth.

In 2013, the media will hold fastener trade fairs in Chengdu (5.29-30), Guangzhou (7.3-4) and Suzhou (10.30-31) respectively, which is bound to become a fastener and related companies to develop different geographical markets. Strong engine!

High middle and low steel prices In 2012, steel prices rose slightly from the beginning of the year and fell rapidly after entering the third quarter. They fell more than 20% in two months. In the autumn season, there was a wave of sharp rebounds. Afterwards, it was again sideways and there was currently a rebound. China Steel Association believes that the overall operating environment of the steel industry in 2013 may be better than 2012, but the situation of oversupply will not change.

Taking price as an example, according to the forecast of the price trend of the domestic steel market in 2013 by the research team of Nishimoto Shinkansen, based on the statistics of the previous 44 quarters, the model has obtained the steel index which will run in the range of RMB 3,700 to 4,500/ton in 2013. In conclusion, the overall price center is 200 to 300 yuan/ton higher than that in 2012. According to the forecast, the operating center price in the first half of 2013 is approximately RMB 4,000 per ton, the highest point in the first half of the year is approximately RMB 4,300/ton, and the lowest point is approximately RMB 3,700/ton. “In conjunction with specific time points, April is the time when the price is close to the high point, and the low point of this round of adjustment will appear from June to July, and it is expected that there will be a high price point for the whole year from October to November,” said the forecast.

It is forecasted that in the short term, domestic steel prices will be dominated by weak consolidation, and the rise and fall will not be too obvious. Affected by urbanization, steel futures prices, and rising iron ore costs, domestic steel prices may show a trend of “middle high, two low” in 2013, and the overall market is showing a slight upward trend compared with 2012.

The deceleration of foreign trade has become a foregone conclusion. In 2012, the total value of China's imports and exports reached 3,866.76 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of Among them, exports grew by 7.9%; imports increased by 4.3%; and they were significantly lower than the foreign trade target of 10%. The Ministry of Commerce will reduce its foreign trade target for 2013 and it has already emerged in local areas. In addition to the current export growth rates in coastal provinces such as Guangdong and Jiangsu, which are major export provinces, Chongqing’s rapid growth in exports has also lowered its foreign trade target to 25%, which is half of last year’s 50%.

It is expected that in 2013, China’s foreign trade will continue to maintain a low growth trend. The foreign trade target in 2013 should be close to 8% of GDP growth target, and the growth rate of import and export may be above 8%. In the next three to five years, the global economic situation will stabilize and pick up, but the economic situation in the United States, the European Union, Japan, and other countries and regions that are China's major export markets are still faced with changes. At the same time, continued appreciation of the renminbi and rising labor costs, stricter environmental protection and energy-saving standards have all increased the production costs of exporters, which may push up export prices (damaging export competitiveness), or may reduce the profitability of exporters.

However, the future growth of exports is not a dark prospect. First, if the European Central Bank’s recent bailout measures can stabilize the European debt crisis, and the US economy can successfully survive the “fiscal cliff”, the international economic situation is expected to improve; Second, with the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area The growth, more potential free trade areas may be launched, and the efforts of Chinese companies to go abroad, China's fastener export market is expected to further diversify, especially to expand in emerging markets and developing countries.

The rise in demand in the terminal industry For the domestic market, fasteners are mainly used in machinery, automobiles, construction, electronic appliances and hardware industries. Therefore, through analyzing and predicting related terminal industries, the fastener companies will outline the development direction.

Machinery China Machinery Industry Federation report pointed out that from January to December 2012, the machinery industry completed the industry's total industrial output value of 184131.05 billion yuan, an increase of 12.64%; to achieve industrial sales output value of 180355.95 billion yuan, an increase of 12.54%, an increase of 5 At around %, the export growth was around 10%, and the growth rate of the main economic indicators of the machinery industry continued to drop significantly, but the medium-term growth was still achieved throughout the year.

It is expected that the demand for machinery industry in 2013 will be better than that of the previous year. Production and sales are expected to achieve modest recovery, slightly better than the previous year; the pressure of rising costs will continue to increase; on the other hand, macroeconomic policies are expected to continue to be more relaxed, and industrial policies are expected to continue. It is conducive to upgrading the machinery industry. It is expected that the economic speed of the machinery industry in 2013 is still expected to continue to achieve double-digit growth. Among them, the growth rate of production and sales is expected to be around 12%; the profit growth is expected to be around 8%; the export growth is expected to be around 8%.

Automobiles In 2012, the automotive industry still maintained "micro growth." According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the nation’s auto production and sales reached a record high in 2012, breaking both 19 million and 19,927,800, respectively, and 19,306,400, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% and 4.3% respectively. It surpassed the United States in ranking first in the world. Dong Yang, secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, predicts that combined with the results of research conducted by major domestic auto companies, it is estimated that sales will be 206.5 million units in 2013, including 19.35 million domestic sales and 1.3 million export sales, with a growth rate of approximately 7%. .

Given the rapid growth in car sales and holdings, the auto market growth is facing huge contradictions with urban transportation, environmental protection, and energy. It is expected that the auto market may encounter regulatory risks in 2013, and the cities where auto purchase restrictions will continue to emerge. Affected by the gradual improvement of the economy, it is expected that the entire industry will recover in 2013. It may have a “micro-growth” of around 5% and the output will reach 20 million vehicles. According to statistics, a light vehicle or passenger car fastener is about 500 specifications, 50kg, and 4,000 pieces; and a medium-sized or heavy truck commercial vehicle requires about 7500 pieces of fasteners and a mass of 90kg. If calculated according to 70kg per vehicle, annual demand for automotive fasteners will exceed 1.5 million tons.

Real Estate In 2012, the property market opened lower and higher. Experienced the price change in the previous period, the stabilization in the medium term, and the continuous amplification of the transaction volume in the fourth quarter, the transaction volume of commercial housing in the whole year was almost equal to 1 billion square meters. Financial commentator Ye Tanjin believes that the second-hand housing market is strong, big cities still have high investment enthusiasm, turnover of houses under 90 square meters, influx of hot money, etc., have gradually formed the bottom of the Chinese real estate market, real estate will be 2013 increase steadily.

It is expected that prices will continue to rise overall in 2013. As the central and secondary cities in the first two years have been greatly affected by the regulation of the property market, the increase in housing prices has been suppressed. Once the market recovers, there will be a strong compensatory growth effect. Most of the third and fourth tier cities still have more significant supply due to oversupply, and there is little room for rising house prices. However, under the policy of “restricting purchases, limiting prices, and limiting loans”, the possibility that the property market will bring about high prices to operate will be limited, and the market will remain stable. The overall situation will be better than last year, and will no longer stick to commercial housing. To transition to new areas such as towns and new economic real estate.

Electronic appliances In 2012, the growth rates of electronics manufacturing in terms of production, export, and investment all dropped significantly, showing no signs of reaching the bottom. At the same time, due to the market downturn, the overall trend of the home appliance market in 2012 was low and high. In 2012, the total output value of the home appliance industry is expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 10%-11% year-on-year; the industrial sales value is about 1.1 trillion yuan. The year-on-year increase of 10%.

It is expected that the impact of factors such as real estate control will continue and the domestic market demand will hardly show strong growth. However, with the continuous improvement of the macroeconomic environment, the promotion of the urbanization road, and the implementation of the New Energy Conservation Subsidy, the steady growth will become the keynote throughout the entire year of 2013, and the growth rate of the electronic and electrical industry will slow down. However, it is still expected to achieve moderate growth.

Furniture was a year of steady growth in the home industry in 2012. Due to rising prices, labor costs, and rising operating costs, the company’s output value grew steadily. According to the data from the China Furniture Association, as of November 2012, domestic enterprises had completed industrial output value of more than 500 billion yuan, and exports had increased by 27%. In the last quarter of 2012, the real estate industry soared. The introduction of new policies and new industry standards also brought good news to the furniture industry, indicating that the most difficult time for the furniture industry has passed.

It is expected that after the 18th National Congress, China will have a new round of government-led large-scale investment construction. In particular, the new round of urbanization will inject new momentum and vitality into the furniture industry. For every 1% of urbanization in China, 14 million domestic demand markets will emerge. In 2013, the furniture industry will gradually warm up, keep steady at a low speed, and will enter the era of furniture brands.

[Foreign Market]

The RMB exchange rate appreciated moderately and showed two-way volatility. As of December 26, 2012, the central parity exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose only by 0.10% in 2012, and the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar was 0.95%, based on the spot exchange rate. Significantly lower than expected, the 2012 RMB showed only a slight appreciation.

Looking ahead to 2013, analysts said that under the background of the stabilization of the domestic economy and the shortcomings of the weak US dollar pattern, the exchange rate of the renminbi may still rise further, but considering that both foreign exchange receipts and trade growth are turning into low-growth orbits. The RMB exchange rate is already approaching an equilibrium level. At the same time, there is considerable uncertainty in the long-term trend of the U.S. dollar. Therefore, it is expected that the real appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will be limited, and the two-way fluctuation will dominate the overall situation.

Standard Chartered Bank predicts that there is still room for a gradual appreciation of the renminbi in 2013. It is expected that the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar will be at 6.190 yuan by the end of 2013, which is about 1.5% higher than the current exchange appreciation. The rate is relatively moderate.

The rate of export tax rebate is mainly stable, and it is unlikely that the major adjustment will be effective since July 1, 2007. The export tax rebate rate for the fastener industry has been reduced from 13% to 5%. With the downturn in the export of fasteners in 2012, the demand for raising the export tax rebate rate has renewed. In November 2012, the China Federation of Machinery Industry proposed to the competent authorities the proposal to increase the export tax rebate rate of the fastener industry from the current 5% to 13%.

An authoritative source from the Ministry of Finance stated that although some agencies have proposed to increase export tax rebates, no matter how much tax rebates and comprehensive tax rates actually exist, there is hardly any room for new tax rebates, and export tax rebates are still based on stable tax rates. It is difficult to implement the possibility of large-scale export tax rebates.

At present, what Chinese fastener companies need to do is not to wait for the upward adjustment of the export tax rebate rate. Instead, they urgently say goodbye to the old days of low-cost growth and start a new era of brand marketing. What China's fastener companies need to do most is to increase the added value of their products, create corporate brands, and gain control over international discourse rights. If they simply fight for price costs, it is difficult to resist competition from Southeast Asian countries with lower labor costs.

Trade protectionism strikes again, anti-dumping big sticks frequently In the fastener industry, foreign trade protectionism is mainly implemented by imposing high import tariffs to prevent the import of foreign goods.

According to statistics, there are currently 10 countries from the European Union, the United States, Canada, Mexico, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Colombia, and Turkey that impose anti-dumping duties on fasteners in mainland China, involving 11 cases. Anti-circumvention cases are also increasing. For example, the European Union launched an anti-circumvention investigation on stainless steel fasteners in China. Related products from China were allegedly transferred to the European Union via Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. In addition, there are 2 cases of warnings. Fastener exporters should pay more attention and take precautions in advance.

Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that in 2013 the world’s major developed countries will further shift to trade and investment protectionism in order to get rid of the predicament of industrial hollowing out. At present, large companies in major developed countries are not bad but they are reluctant to expand their investment and expansion. The government is poor and is on the verge of a financial crisis and has to resort to fiscal austerity. Competition for shrinking external demand markets has become an important means of promoting growth. At the same time, everyone does not want to waste this crisis. They all hope to promote the structural transformation of their country through this crisis. For example, on the one hand, the United States encourages the divestment of capital to ease the predicament of hollowing out its industry. On the other hand, it adopts protectionism to implement the strategy of revitalizing the high-end manufacturing industry.

European debt crisis continues to affect, market demand continues to shrink. The European Commission released a report on November 7, 2012, saying that in the short term EU economic conditions remain fragile, but in 2013 the European Union’s economic growth will gradually return and will become firm in 2014. The report predicts that the growth rate of the EU economy in 2013 will reach 0.4% and that in the euro area will be 0.1%.

According to Janet Henry, HSBC's chief European analyst, “The euro zone is out of the bottom in 2012 and global trade recovery should provide some support in 2013, but the growth outlook is still very weak.” The IMF is pessimistic about the 2013 euro zone economic growth expectation. From the 0.2% increase, it was downgraded to a 0.2% decline, and the overall German-French West growth was lowered. Germany dropped to 0.6%, France fell to 0.3%, Italy fell to -1%, and Spain dropped to -1.5%.

The EU is the major market for fastener exports in China, accounting for about one-third of total exports. In recent years, due to the European debt crisis, the EU market demand has shrunk. China's export growth to the EU has slowed down, and the EU’s share of China’s exports has gradually declined. In the ranking of China's fastener export market in 2012 (by weight), only three countries in the EU entered the top 20, namely Germany (9th place), UK (18th place) and Italy (19th place). The export volume was 65,500 tons, 37,500 tons and 33,200 tons, respectively, down 12.5%, 12.9%, and 40.1% year-on-year respectively.

According to the EU Commissioner, due to the worsening debt crisis in Europe, it is expected that the EU economy will remain sluggish in 2013 and the unemployment rate will be high. In the case of economic crisis, EU countries will continue to implement fiscal tightening and trade protection measures to protect the regional economy. It is expected that China’s exports to the EU will continue to decline in 2013 and may still be negative growth. Bilateral trade frictions are inevitable.

U.S. economy recovers slowly and market demand grows steadily. The IMF reduced its annual GDP growth forecast for the United States in 2013 by 0.2% to 1.4%, but forecasted that the average GDP growth rate will maintain 2%. However, the premise is that the United States can replace drastic and automatic financial budgeting with a series of “recruitment plans” while ensuring that the fiscal scale of 2013 will reach 1.25% of GDP.

In addition, relevant US economists expect the U.S. economy to continue its slow recovery in 2013. The warming of the real estate market and the phenomenon of industrial reversion will be conducive to U.S. industrial growth, the unemployment rate will drop, and the demand for consumer and industrial goods markets will increase steadily.

The United States is the largest exporter of fasteners in China. In 2012, China exported 481,600 tons of fasteners to the United States with an export value of 920 million US dollars, an increase of 8.2% and 6.8% year-on-year respectively. It is expected that the fastener trade between China and the United States will continue to show steady growth in 2013. However, the U.S. government continues to implement quantitative easing monetary and fiscal policies, bringing with it huge fiscal deficits and trade deficits, which will cause the U.S. dollar exchange rate to continue to decline, the international speculative capital surges, the international primary product market prices to rise and fall, and the pressure for RMB appreciation to increase. And it may continue to cause input inflation.

Japan's economy is slowly growing, and the economic stimulus plan has hidden dangers Although the economy has further fallen into recession, the IMF's forecast of Japan’s economic growth has not been lowered. The Japanese economy is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2013. It expects the Japanese recession to be short-lived because temporary factors (such as car subsidies and interference with China's trade) will fade. However, Japan’s large-scale fiscal stimulus, further monetary easing, recovery of external demand, and weaker yen will all stimulate economic growth. In addition, under the support of the slow recovery of the global economy and the investment in public utilities in Japan, investment in corporate equipment will increase by 3.5%, and domestic demand growth will drive the overall economy of Japan. However, Reuters also stated that since Japan is already the most heavily indebted major economy, the large-scale economic stimulus package has the potential for debt risks.

Nevertheless, Japan, which is China’s third-largest fastener exporter (calculated as the second-largest in terms of amount of money), has the potential for the fastener market to be beyond reproach. It is expected that with the gradual recovery of Japan’s economy, China’s fasteners exported to Japan will also increase.

Australia's economic growth is modest, leading the survey of other developed countries. Analysts expect Australia's gross domestic product to increase by 2.7% in 2013, which is lower than the 3.5% expected in 2012 and also lower than the 3.0% expected in October. The growth, but compared with other developed countries, the country's economy will still grow moderately and lead. At present, the Australian economy has maintained its growth for nearly 22 years and surpassed Spain as the 12th largest economy in the world.

The key factor affecting Australia today is whether the weak industry can fill the vacancy caused by the fall in the mineral industry, especially the housing market. HSBC Holdings analyst PaulBloxham said: "In order to maintain a solid overall economic growth, other sectors need to speed up. We still expect real estate and consumer sectors will further increase."

From the perspective of the fastener industry, in 2012 China's fastener export rankings, Australia is the most compelling, its export ranking rose from the tenth in 2011 to sixth place. In 2012, China exported 72,578 tons of fasteners to Australia to US$148,582,831, an increase of 3.7% and 1.3% year-on-year respectively.

Emerging Markets as Export Market Potential IMF expects the growth of emerging markets and developing economies will rise to 5.5% in 2013. However, the IMF also stressed that “the growth rate will not rebound to the high level of 2010-2011”, and It pointed out that the rebound of many emerging economies stems from the short-term effects of economic stimulus policies, warned that the negative impact of the decline in foreign demand continues to exist, and the space for countries to further relax their policies has been reduced.

Emerging markets will become bright spots in the development of the world economy and are potential stocks for China’s export market. In recent years, the proportion of China's export market has also continued to rise. In 2012, due to the deterioration of the debt crisis in Europe and other factors, the exchange rate of developing countries fluctuated dramatically, exports fell, and economic growth slowed down. In fact, due to the influence of economic structural factors, the economic development of developing countries has also been divided. In some countries, economic growth has slowed down. Countries such as Brazil and India have maintained economic growth momentum. From January to November 2012, China’s exports to ASEAN increased by 19.3%, of which exports to Indonesia and Malaysia increased by 16.2% and 29%, respectively, and exports to Russia increased by 13%. If the economy of emerging countries recovers steadily, it is expected that China’s imports and exports to developing countries will grow steadily in 2013 and will lead the recovery of the world economy together with emerging economies.

Russian Russia’s “The Independent” reported on January 30 that experts from Russia’s higher economic school development center believe that the Russian economy will enter the automatic operation mode in 2013, and most of the fields will be in decline or stagnation, only in agriculture, energy and municipal areas. Will continue to grow. According to the statistics of the Federal Bureau of Statistics, Russia’s GDP grew by 3.2% in 2012, which was lower than the 5.1% in 2011. Under the influence of the deteriorating international economic environment, domestic demand and investment stagnation, Russia’s economic development has begun to slow in 2012. The economic situation in 2013 is forecast to be worse than that in 2012, with a growth rate of 1.4%.

The total number of fasteners exported to Russia by China in 2012 was 200,823 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.19%. The total value was US$281,787,866, a decrease of 8.96% year-on-year, making China the second largest fastener export destination in China. Although the Russian economy began to slow down, the potential of the fastener market is still very large. At the 8th (Suzhou) Fastener Trade Fair, the number of Russian purchasers was a record high.

According to the forecast of the IMF in the Middle East, due to the impact of the global economic growth rate, the decline in international oil prices in 2013 may be significantly higher than the increase. Affected by this, the economic growth rate of oil exporting countries in the Middle East is expected to slow down to 3.8% in 2013, while the economic growth rate of oil importing countries will increase to 3.3% due to the drop in oil prices and the stabilization of the political situation. The growth rate of the Middle East economy in 2012 was 1.8%, and the IMF forecast 2013 growth rate of 2.4%. One of the economic ministers of the United Arab Emirates, Mansour, said that the economic growth rate of the UAE in 2013 will remain basically the same as 2012 levels, staying at around 4%.

In 2012, the UAE was the fifth largest export market for fasteners in China. China’s fasteners exported to the United Arab Emirates amounted to 73,184 tons, which was US$114,563,665, a year-on-year decrease of 0.61% and 6.23%, respectively. Although exports have declined, the rankings have risen by one compared to 2011. In addition, according to related surveys, the composite annual growth rate of the construction industry in the UAE from 2010 to 2013 is expected to be at least 20%. Major participants are particularly optimistic about the prospects of the construction materials and machinery market. In addition, the continued investment in Saudi Arabian engineering, coupled with the recent new investment in the entire region, these good news will further stimulate the demand for building materials and machinery. It can be seen that the UAE market is one of the important fastener markets in China in the future.

Southeast Asia's economic growth in Southeast Asia in 2012 was higher than the global level, with 11 countries in Southeast Asia growing 5.3%, faster than the world's 2%. In 2012, China and Southeast Asia had a high trade record, reaching US$409.3 billion, an increase of 10.29%. The World Bank released the report “Data Monitoring in East Asia and the Pacific.” It said that Southeast Asian economies were bullish in 2013 because of strong domestic demand and investment spending. As a result, the Bank increased Malaysia's growth rate from the previous 4.6% to 4.8% and the Philippines from 4.2% to 5.0%. It is expected that the GDP growth rates of Indonesia and Thailand this year will be 6.1% and 4.5% respectively.

In addition, with the continuous improvement of the investment environment in Southeast Asian countries, the rise and expansion of the middle class, and the low labor cost, its market attractiveness has become increasingly prominent. Japan is increasing its investment in Southeast Asia, and the manufacturing bases of many Japanese companies have been relocated to ASEAN countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar, which have a certain role in promoting the development of Southeast Asia.

Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia are all important exporters of fasteners in China, especially Thailand. In 2012, China exported 59,577 tons of fasteners to Thailand, with a total value of 100,001,25 billion U.S. dollars. 11th place. It is expected that the fastener trade between China and Southeast Asia will also show steady growth in 2013, but it will also be affected by the foreign environment and anti-circumvention. In 2013, the media will bring its full English Procurement Guide CFD to focus on the Southeast Asia show to support the identity of the media at the Indonesian Metals & Steel Exhibition, Indonesia Fastener Show, Thailand Auto Parts Show, Thailand Wire Show, Vietnam Machine Tool Metalworking Exhibition, Help China fastener companies develop the Southeast Asian market.

India's economic growth rate in India in 2012 was 5.5%, reflecting the weakening of consumer and investment demand in the context of continued high inflation, high nominal interest rates, high fiscal deficits and political consensus. In the fiscal year 2012-2013, due to the economic downturn in major western countries such as the United States and Europe, the export value of fasteners and other engineering products in India is expected to be US$55-57 billion, failing to reach the expected US$60 billion.

The UN’s recently released report on the “World Economic Situation and Outlook 2013” ​​pointed out that in 2013, India’s exports and capital investment will regain their upward momentum compared to 2012, and the growth rate will slowly return to the level of 6.1%. In 2014, it will further recover to At the level of 6.5%, the growth rate of exports and investment will increase. The recovery of investment demand will be accompanied by loose monetary policy and will gradually increase market confidence.

In 2012, India imported 66,094 tons of fasteners from China with a total amount of US$116,546,571, which is the eighth-largest export destination for fasteners in China. It is expected that with the further recovery of the Indian economy in 2013, the fasteners exported to India by China will also increase.

Brazil's economic growth rate in Brazil in 2012 was 0.95%, and the inflation rate increased by 5.84% from the previous year, slightly lower than the 6.50% in the previous year. The largest private bank in Brazil, Itao Union Bank, predicts that in 2013, Brazil’s economic growth will rebound to 3% from last year, the Brazilian Central Bank survey report predicts 3.1%, inflation rate to 5.67%, inflation may become 2013 The biggest risk of economic growth in Brazil. Pedro Moreira, chairman of the Union Bank of Italy, stated that the Brazilian labor market is close to full employment. In addition, the Brazilian economy needs more investment, and increases production efficiency, reducing the pull of domestic consumption on the economy.

In 2011, China was the second largest fastener importing country in Brazil, with a total import amount of US$1,276,000. It mainly imported automotive fasteners. According to the statistics of the International Automobile Manufacturers Association (OICA), Brazil, which has a capacity of one million cars, is the seventh-largest automobile manufacturing country, and its automotive market became the world’s fourth-largest market in 2011. This fully shows that Brazil has a huge market potential for fasteners.

Infrastructural and investment growth in Africa According to the “2013 World Economic Situation and Prospects Report” announced by the United Nations, Africa’s economy will achieve a growth of 4.8% in 2013, which is slightly lower than the growth rate of 5.0% in 2012, but higher than the global 2.4% growth in the economy. The main growth drivers for the African economy are: boom in resource development, strong domestic demand created by the middle class, increased investment in infrastructure construction, and continued expansion of foreign direct investment and overseas remittance income.

From January to October 2012, China-Africa trade volume, China’s total exports to Africa, and total imports from Africa all achieved rapid growth. The total volume of bilateral import and export trade reached US$163.89 billion, an increase of 20.94% over the same period of the previous year. It is expected that bilateral trade volume will exceed 200 billion U.S. dollars in the year. Among them, China's exports to Africa amounted to 69.435 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 16.25%. China’s main exports to Africa are still mechanical and electrical products, textile products, high-tech products, clothing, and agricultural products. The total export value of the above five categories of commodities reached US$27.39 billion, accounting for 77% of China’s total exports to Africa. Electromechanical products (including ships, steel, automobiles, etc.) are the largest category of Chinese exports to Africa.

Today's Africa is a vast world with 1.1 billion people, 30 million square kilometers of rivers and mountains, 54 independent countries and all resources. This is the only post-continental continent in the world. With the growth of infrastructure and foreign investment in the region, the demand for fasteners will also grow rapidly.

Summary In summary, the domestic and international environment in 2013 is not only a strategic opportunity period with great achievements, but also a strategic challenge period. It is expected that the pressure on the fastener industry will be relatively relieved in 2012 compared with 2012. Low-speed growth will become the norm, and the development situation will be cautiously optimistic. There will remain uncertainties and risks in the future. Therefore, fastener enterprises should pay close attention to the domestic and international economic situation and government policies in 2013, adjust product structure and marketing strategy in a timely manner according to market trends, create brand effect, increase product added value, increase research and development, and improve management level. Automated production improves efficiency and enhances the competitiveness of enterprises.