Infrastructure growth is not an “iron public machine” Solving the debt problem is due to the city’s policy

Senior researcher Zhang Bin believes that the growth rate of infrastructure is not “iron public transport” (railway, highway, airport), and the main content is not “iron public transport”. The fastest-growing is the infrastructure investment in various municipal and public services in cities. , while also accounting for the highest proportion. At present, the proportion of water conservancy, environment and public facilities is the largest, close to 50%, and the proportion of railways, highways and airports is also a little over 20%.

At the same time, Zhang Bin believes that to solve the problem of local city debt, it cannot be implemented across the board. It must be decided by the city. Although China’s infrastructure construction has grown rapidly in the past, there are still many areas where urban demand will improve in the future, and infrastructure issues cannot be demonized. At the same time, cities must be differentiated when dealing with infrastructure issues. For example, in some major cities in China, there are still many imperfections in terms of infrastructure. If they can be improved, they can attract more talents into cities.

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Infrastructure is not "iron public machine"

Teacher Zhang Bin believes that in the past five years, the pace of growth in infrastructure has gradually slowed at two or three points a year. The growth rate of infrastructure in 2013 reached 20%. At the end of last year, the growth rate of infrastructure construction was only 14%. It will be even lower this year, and it has not been reported in the first quarter of this year. This is the case of infrastructure growth. Although the growth rate of infrastructure has been declining, the proportion of infrastructure investment in fixed assets has increased. Why does the proportion of investment in fixed assets increase? The rate of growth in investment in fixed assets has fallen faster, and the proportion of infrastructure has increased? If you compare the infrastructure investment with GDP, of course, these two things are not very similar, because of the problem of caliber. In fact, it is also an increase in infrastructure investment and GDP if the ratio is two. This is a change in the growth rate.

Although we say that the growth in the past is still very fast in our current infrastructure, we still have many places where we need to do infrastructure in the future. Do not demonize the issue of infrastructure construction. In addition to dealing with infrastructure issues, it is necessary to separate cities. This includes technical policies and cannot be said to be one-size-fits-all. You are injured and innocent by all means. In fact, many places lack infrastructure. Especially in big cities, there is a shortage of infrastructure. If they do well in infrastructure, it is better to help people who have more accommodation in the city and live better in this city. In fact, it is best to help those small cities. One way. Therefore, for these things, don’t think about the infrastructure problems in the small cities. Do not use the entire financial system, including the handling of local debt, including infrastructure policies, do not demonize it, or have different types. It is indeed There are different evaluations.

In the past, everyone said that the infrastructure was the “iron public machine” and the “iron public engine” was more of an image. The argument was more popular and everyone could accept it. But in fact, the main content of infrastructure is not “iron public machine”. After the stimulus program of 2008-2009, when we were desperately trying to “iron public machine”, railways, highways, airports, The proportion of all the infrastructure is only 32%. Today, railways, highways, and airports are added together, which is more than 20%. And this proportion is continuing to decline. According to the general classification of infrastructure, according to statistical classification of three categories. First, transportation and warehousing and postal services are related to the “iron public machine”. The second is electricity, heat, gas, and water. The third one is water conservancy, environment and public facilities. Which accounted for the most? Water, environment, and public facilities accounted for the most. Today, it is close to 50% of the proportion. This piece of electricity, water and heat this piece is less than 20%, transportation, warehousing, postal 30%, and we have to know that our entire transportation and transportation share has dropped sharply, electricity and heat are declining, in the past few years, Water conservancy, environment and public facilities are improving.

Infrastructure growth It is not “iron public transport” and its main content is not “iron public transport”. The fastest-growing infrastructure investment in various municipal and public services areas in our city accounted for the highest percentage.

Public facilities are mainly urban public facilities, but also include those repairing parks, environmental protection, urban sanitation, and these public facilities. We all talked about the “iron public engine”. Everyone knows that the average railway is about the same every year. It’s almost the same for the past few years. It’s about 7-8 billion yuan. We spend money on environmental protection, including park construction, in parks and tourist destinations every year. About one trillion yuan each year is bigger than the railway. The fastest increase in the amount of money we spend is on the urban sanitation and urban public facilities. This is the fastest growing place. This is the most important place for spending money.

To solve the debt problem, it is necessary to use the city to make decisions and the city is also trying to eliminate the fittest.

Zhang Bin believes that the two perspectives of debt sustainability can be divided into several categories. Category 6.

The first category, with particularly large potential, relative growth in infrastructure, population flow is not much, at the same time its debt risk is very low, and it is relatively sustainable. This is a type of city, the first type of city. Shenzhen and Shenzhen are very strange cities. This year, the economy is growing so fast and the population is moving so much. However, it is not willing to do infrastructure construction, and is unwilling to borrow money. Infrastructure debt, such as Shenzhen’s debt rate, is borne by its platform’s debt. The proportion of GDP is only 20%, Tianjin is 120%. This is 100% worse. This is Shenzhen.

The second-tier cities include Chongqing, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Hefei, Wuhan and Suzhou. In fact, these cities are also the past few years. Everyone sees these cities as the cities where house prices have risen fastest.

There are three or four-tier cities, this is the first type, and the potential is low risk.

The second type has great potential, but it has a high risk. What does this include? First-tier cities in Tianjin and Guangzhou, and second-tier cities in Ningbo. This is to say a few words. Although it is on the second line, Tianjin is very different from Guangzhou. Tianjin can put it in because there is a lot of population inflow from 2010 to 2015. By 2017, the population will start to flow out if the population goes out again. For several years, Tianjin is not the first three types will fall behind the three types. Guangzhou is not the same. Guangzhou has great potential, but it has high risks and high risks because the ratio of current assets is a little lower. This is easy to adjust. If Guangzhou wants to enter a category, the city with low risk is simple and a little bit of people go out. On the other hand, it is not exactly the same. Ningbo, the recent population change in these conditions has changed somewhat.

The third type of city has ambiguous potential and low risk. Mainly Beijing and Shanghai. Beijing and Shanghai are because of the outflow of population. The population of Beijing and Shanghai does not flow out. Beijing and Shanghai are also the first type. Then there are Shenyang, Dalian, Wuxi and Wenzhou in the second-tier cities. Shenyang and Dalian are mainly because the economic growth rate is relatively low compared to infrastructure, and economic growth has not kept pace. The rest of the three or four cities.

The latter three types of potential have a high risk of ambiguity. This type of city is more dangerous to do infrastructure. The potential is small, the risk is low, relative population mobility has little growth potential compared to economic growth, but the risks are relatively low, and then the potential risks are high. You can see the kind of city behind you. You can't see the first-tier cities behind that type. There are two second-tier cities in these four types, Dongguan and Foshan. In Dongguan and Foshan, this year’s data will immediately go up. Dongguan and Foshan will be cage-changed after 2010-2015. Indeed, the industry has great adjustments. Dongguan’s population has grown negatively, but by 2017, the economic growth has begun to turn. Come here, so Foshan, Dongguan, these two are just saying that they are ranked fourth and will soon be able to jump to the first few categories. However, most third-tier cities have long stayed here. The fifth type of city has small potential and low risk, Tangshan. A second-tier city, the rest are four-tier cities. Then there are three or four-tier cities with low potential and high risk.

When we put all the data together and put it together to tell us something? What is my personal experience? My own understanding is that economic restructuring, industrial upgrading, and the survival of the fittest, the market is talking about the increase in industrial concentration. In fact, these things are put on a single worker. We can see that in the past few years, there has been a very clear survival of the fittest. Putting it on a company, we see that a large number of companies have died, and that new companies have grown up very well. This principle also applies to cities. Nowadays, all kinds of cities in China are experiencing very large ones. In the round, such a survival of the fittest is a bit cruel, but there is indeed a serious polarization and polarization. Good cities will get better and better. Poor cities will get worse and worse. This is a natural process, just like the survival of the fittest. The city is also the survival of the fittest.

We have seen a lot of third- and fourth-tier cities, and the outflow of the population from the industry has been sluggish. However, many first- and second-tier cities, mainly first and second-tier cities, are increasingly attractive. Returning to our infrastructural issues, when we talk about infrastructure issues, we can also pick out many problems with it. The project design is unreasonable. The quality of the project design is not very good. We originally needed a 500-square-meter square. You built a 5,000-square-meter square, similar to this. There are a lot of problems and a variety of issues, but I would like to say that there is a deepest experience in the reports mentioned here. We want to introduce the biggest problem and the most prominent problem. It is very important for you to choose the right place. Do not and The trend is right. Do not look at those three or four-tier cities. If the infrastructure of the fourth- and fifth-tier cities or smaller cities is poor, they should be supplemented and improved. This is not to help them. Can’t help them. The way you help them is to get them to the bigger cities. Go and provide them with a better environment in a bigger city. Businesses are difficult to save. Cities are also difficult to save. They do not mean to save lives. However, this process of survival of the fittest must go against this process and place a lot of local resource infrastructure in places where the population flows out and the industry is in a recession. Infrastructure will not work, and it will create a serious financial burden on the local area, not helping them. Just as we have done research, at least in my opinion, this is the deepest point. Do not go against the big trend. The regional setting of infrastructure should not be against the tide. This is the first point.

Secondly, we do see that many places are actually four-line or smaller cities. It has long been financially bankrupt. It had negative or profitable profits for the year. There are many such small cities. For such small cities, such debt problems in some localities really need to be resolved, but don't try to solve the debt problems of such cities. Although we say that the growth in the past is still very fast in our current infrastructure, we still have many places where we need to do infrastructure in the future. Do not demonize the issue of infrastructure construction. In addition to dealing with infrastructure issues, it is necessary to separate cities. This includes technical policies and cannot be said to be one-size-fits-all. You are injured and innocent by all means. In fact, many places lack infrastructure. Especially in big cities, there is a shortage of infrastructure. If they do well in infrastructure, it is better to help people who have more accommodation in the city and live better in this city. In fact, it is best to help those small cities. One way. Therefore, for these things, don’t think about the infrastructure problems in the small cities. Do not use the entire financial system, including the handling of local debt, including infrastructure policies, do not demonize it, or have different types. It is indeed There are different evaluations.