Reduced price promotion will be the main theme of the second half of the tire

Since the adjustment is not yet over, the commodity market will continue to operate weakly and repeatedly in the short term. On the whole, the tire market in the second half of the year is still not optimistic. The price reduction promotion and destocking will be the main theme of the tire market in the second half of the year.

If the tire market in 2012 is "tangled," then the tire market in the first half of this year can be described as "treasure."

The price of all-steel tires dropped further

The investment of multinational tire companies “removed” foreign brands tire aristocratic coats. In the second half of 2012, the Goodyear Pulandian Store was formally put into production, and Michelin’s Shenyang plant’s 600,000 sets of all-steel tire production capacity expanded to 1.8 million sets. International giants Michelin, Goodyear, and Bridgestone have seen frequent price cuts in the first half of 2013.

In the first half of the year, domestic brand tires were madly slashing prices. In the first half of the year, the prices of tires such as Chaoyang, Zhengxin, Jiangsu GM, and Saihuan all went down. They were dragged down by frequent price cuts by manufacturers. Although dealers were extremely reluctant, they also had to cut prices. Throughout the first half of the year, inventory of domestic brands of tire agents continued to be high, taking poor goods.

According to Zhuo Chuang's survey of domestic brand tire agents in the first half of the year, there are more than 25 medium and large-scale distributors in Northeast China, Hebei Province, Shandong Province, Jiangsu Province and Fujian Province. More than 80% said that the total volume of shipments has fallen since the same period of last year. More than 30%, 10% said demand fell 20% to 30%.

Not three bags of tires at its low price to seize the domestic part of the all-steel tire market. According to incomplete statistics, at present, the domestic market for steel tires does not have more than 30% of the three-batch occupation rate. Since 2013, the price of non-three packs of tires has fallen even further. Every time a dealer feels that he should have bottomed out, three bags of tires will always give customers “unexpected surprises”. In the first half of this year, a total of three bags of tires declined by a total of about 3 times, with a cumulative decrease of 9% to 11%.

Semi-steel export sales increase

In the first half of the year, the overall demand for the domestic semi-steel tire market showed a steady downward trend, and the price decline was relatively modest. The overall rate ranged from 3% to 5%. In terms of regional conditions, the demand in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong is significantly higher than that in other regions. The monthly volume of some brands varies from 3,000 to 5,000; the northeastern and northwestern regions are significantly affected by the season and snow tires are present. The trend of soaring in the short term was driven by more favourable factors of snowfall. Its sales volume was higher than that of the same period of previous years. Some merchants sold out all last year, but the sales of four seasons tires started obviously later than the same period of last year. In the second quarter, due to the impact of the rainy season in the southern region, the demand for four-season births was not very optimistic.

From the perspective of brand sales, the current domestic market is still dominated by foreign brands, with a market share of around 65%. In particular, the top ten foreign brands have continuously expanded their domestic production capacity, which has a leading influence on the semi-steel market, but its The high prices also made some consumers discouraged, especially consumers who do not understand the replacement of tires, there is no special requirement for tire replacement, which also makes the domestic low-end brands take the initiative, especially the part of the semi-steel Dongying area Tire enterprises, whose factory prices are low, have a greater impact on the market and are the preferred choice for taxi owners.

Currently, the string of goods in the market is prevalent. Since the first half of the year, the volume of shipments of serial sellers has been significantly higher. In the northern regions, especially in Shandong and Beijing, the 175, 185, 195, and 205 series are mainly used, and a certain specification has been adopted. The main products are mainly repetitive goods, while the large specifications are mainly concentrated in the area of ​​Guangdong, with more than 235 series specifications, and their prices are more advantageous.

As far as the foreign trade situation is concerned, the export market for semi-steel tires in China still dominates the market. The output of domestic semi-steel tires is more than half of its exports. The major trading regions are Europe, the United States, Southeast Asia, and Africa. The average monthly export volume of the United States is more than 35%. The average monthly export volume of Qingdao Customs accounts for more than 50% of the country's monthly export volume. From January to May 2013, the total export volume of semi-steel tires in China was 665,754 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. The export situation is promising.

Supporting market is warm

The supporting market is closely related to the production of automobiles. In the first half of this year, the overall increase in China’s automobile output reached two digits, which was in line with the beginning of the year, especially the heavy truck series. The upward trend in the first half of this year was positive. In the replacement market, due to the economic situation and the relatively low investment in real estate and infrastructure projects in the first half of the year, the demand for tires in the replacement market fell significantly compared with the same period of last year.

From January to May 2013, the production and sales of automobiles reached 9,077,200 and 9,027,100 vehicles, an increase of 13.49% and 12.56% respectively. In the first half of the year, China's auto production and sales maintained an increase of over 10%, which was generally better than expected at the beginning of the year. Among them, the automobile production and sales situation was the best in March. Both sales and sales exceeded 2 million vehicles in the month, setting a record high. Although the April and May ratios have decreased by a certain amount, the cumulative year-on-year growth has maintained a steady increase.

From January to May 2013, commercial vehicles produced and sold 1,775,600 vehicles and 1,766,500 vehicles, an increase of 7.12% and 4.45% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate continued to rise steadily from the previous month. Among them, the month-on-month growth in March reached the highest level in the first half of the year, an increase of 76.68%; January was the highest year-on-year, an increase of 39.58%.

From January to May 2013, passenger car production and sales amounted to 7.3316 million units and 726.16 million units, an increase of 15.16% and 14.73% year-on-year, which was slower than the previous April. Among them, in March "the first half of the first quarter than the ring", an increase of 49.95%; the year-on-year growth in the obvious advantages, an increase of 53.88%.

Raw materials drag down the tire market

In the first half of the year, the price of natural rubber fell repeatedly. As of the end of June, the price of rubber fell to a new low of 17,000 yuan/ton, which was down 9,000 yuan/ton from the previous high before the Spring Festival, a decrease of 34.62%, and a decrease of 6,300 yuan/ton or 27.04% from the same period of last year. As the price of rubber continues to bottom out, the profit margins of downstream manufacturers have expanded, but the losses of traders have become more severe. At the same time, as the financing channels are tightened, merchants are generally undercapitalized, their ability to resist risks is low, and small and medium-sized companies that do not pay attention to hedging are avoided. Businesses are bound to face a cruel reshuffle.

In the first half of the year, the butadiene styrene and butadiene rubber markets continued to decline after a narrow disk operation from January to February. As of the end of June, prices have fallen to a new low since 2009. In the first half of the year, the average price of the butadiene market was 15,427 yuan/ton, down 39.8% from the average price of 25,614 yuan/ton in the same period of last year. In the second half of the year, China’s economic outlook is still unsatisfactory, and there is a period of high productivity. At the same time, the demand for downstream tires and shoe materials is low season. In the long term, due to the unfavorable macro environment and the imbalance between supply and demand, the rebound rate is not strong. In the second half of the year, the market is more likely to maintain demand within the interval.

In the first half of 2013, the domestic carbon black industry was struggling ahead in the complicated and fierce competition. The profit of most manufacturers was on the verge of losses. Individual large-scale manufacturers continued to increase production capacity, especially the Jiangxi Black Cat. Affected by the continued high level of construction of downstream tire factories, the carbon black industry shipped slightly better in the first half of the year, but the overall price dropped by 200~300 yuan/ton compared with the same period of last year. In the context of stable raw material prices, the carbon black industry in China The overall operation is particularly severe.

From late May to early June 2012, the operating rate of all-steel tires in Shandong seems to have turned sharply overnight, almost falling below 50%, which is usually about 60% of the start of an industry. The reason is that Hangzhou Zhongce and other large tire companies have used their substandard products to reduce the prices of Shandong steel tires by a large margin. In 2013, this price war was a month and a half later than in 2012. It was the beginning of the price war in the beginning of July. The double-star and other brand tires also joined it. Based on the current domestic demand for end-users, it fell again in the third quarter. The profit space is getting smaller and smaller, and it is expected that in mid-to-late July, it will be the time period for start-up of the non-three-pack steel-tire enterprises.

The price trend of tires in the second half of the year depends on the trend of rubber prices and the recovery of demand. Looking into the second half of the year, overall, the adjustment of the commodity market has not yet been completed, and the weak operation and repeated bottoming will continue in the short term. Jiaojiao market is still not optimistic about the end of performance is the key. In terms of tire terminal demand, in the second half of the year, many companies hope to build domestic urbanization. This has greatly boosted demand for tires, but concrete plans have not yet been issued for urbanization in the second half of the year, while investment in highways and infrastructure has slowed down. Is affecting the tire demand market. On the whole, the tire market in the second half of the year is still not optimistic. The price reduction promotion and destocking will be the main theme of the tire market in the second half of the year.