The recovery of the petrochemical economy is operating. The issue of good overcapacity is still outstanding
According to the latest analysis report from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, in November, the nation’s oil and chemical industry rebounded well, output value and output continued to increase significantly, and the operating rate of some industries improved; the demand for major petrochemical products continued to rise, and prices remained stable overall. Increased; industry investment growth accelerated; decline in foreign trade continued to shrink, export growth for the first time in the year.
As of the end of November, there were a total of 34,697 manufacturing enterprises in the petroleum and chemical industries across the country. The total output value (current price, the same below) was 635.91 billion yuan in the month, which was the highest level in the year, a substantial increase of 28.4% year-on-year and an increase of 3.9% year-on-year. In terms of sub-industries, the output value of the chemical industry was 372.19 billion yuan, an increase of 39.5% over the previous year, which was 41% faster; the output value of the oil and natural gas extraction industry was 73.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, and the first time this year saw a positive growth; the refinery industry output value was 174.27 billion yuan, up year-on-year. Increased by 20.8%. In November, the value added of the petroleum and chemical industries increased by 21.6% year-on-year, 4.7 percentage points higher than the previous month. Among them, the oil and natural gas extraction industry increased by 9.7%, the refining industry increased by 20.3%, and the chemical industry increased by 32.8%.
In November, the 62% (categories) of petroleum and chemical products tracked by the association accounted for 90.3% of the year-on-year increase, which was an increase of approximately 2 percentage points from the previous month; the growth rate of more than 10% of the species (categories) was 87.1%. It increased by about 13 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, crude oil output was 15.667 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, which was one of the few products to drop; natural gas output was 7.86 billion cubic meters, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year; crude oil processing volume was 33.363 million tons, an increase of 21% year-on-year, processing volume and growth rate Both hit record highs during the year; refined oil production reached 20.042 million tons, up 14.1% year-on-year; ethylene production was 0.989 million tons, up 33.6% year-on-year; fertilizer production was 5.484 million tons, up 34.4% year-on-year; pesticide production was 195,000 tons, up 33.7% year-on-year; Tire production was 60.185 million pieces, an increase of 35.6% year-on-year.
According to the analysis of the price index of more than 1,000 petrochemical products announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total price level of the petroleum and chemical industries continued to rise in November, and the total industry price index was 97.07 points (the same month of the previous year was 100, the same below). This is an increase of 9.01 points over October. Among the 1,000 or so petrochemical products, the price index rose by 44.2% month-on-month, 3.8 percentage points higher than the previous month, 19.8% flat, and 36%; the price index rose year-on-year. (Class) accounted for 25.5%, 6.7% for the flat, and 67.8% for the decline.
In November, the production and sales rate of petroleum and chemical products was 98.42%, which was 98.1% from January to November, which was a year-on-year increase of 0.09 percentage points. Production and sales were well connected. According to statistics, in October, the demand for major domestic petrochemical products continued to expand. In particular, the apparent consumption of fertilizers, synthetic materials, rubber tires, and methanol continued to grow rapidly. From January to October, the apparent consumption of oil increased by 1.4% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points higher than that from January to September, of which crude oil increased by 3.9% year-on-year and was 0.6% faster than the previous month. In the first 10 months, apparent consumption of chemical fertilizers increased by 12.7% year-on-year; apparent consumption of ethylene rose by 3.7% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous month; apparent consumption of methanol increased by 34.2%; and apparent consumption of synthetic resin increased by 14.4. %; Apparent consumption of synthetic rubber increased by 17.3% year-on-year; apparent consumption of polyester increased by 21.6% year-on-year; apparent consumption of tires increased by 45.9% year-on-year.
From January to November, the investment in fixed assets of the petroleum and chemical industries nationwide reached 878.253 billion yuan, an increase of 12.13% year-on-year, 1.5 percentage points higher than the period from January to October. The growth rate accelerated for the first time after a five-month slowdown. By sector, the investment in the chemical industry accounted for 65.5% of the total investment in the industry, an increase of 26.8% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points from January to October; investment in the oil and gas industry and the refining industry decreased by 9% and 13.3% year-on-year, respectively, a decrease of 1 From October to October, it was reduced by 5.9 and 1.1 percentage points respectively.
Statistics show that in November, the export delivery value of the oil and chemical industry was 33.495 billion yuan, a record high for the year, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year, and the first positive growth this year. From 1 to 11 years ago, the export value of the entire industry was 325.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%, which was 2.1 percentage points lower than the period from January to October. The export delivery value of the chemical industry was 271.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%.
However, there are still some problems in the current economic operation of the oil and chemical industry. First, the issue of overcapacity is still outstanding. Except for a small number of product capabilities, most of the products are surplus, and some surpluses are quite serious. What is particularly noteworthy is that investment in some industries with serious excess capacity is still accelerating. Second, the chemical market is showing little improvement, and most companies still have difficulty operating. Looking at the price of more than 1,000 kinds of petrochemical products announced by the National Bureau of Statistics in November, although the index has recovered, the market downturn has not changed fundamentally, and most companies are still struggling on the P/L line. Third, the pressure of import shocks has increased and the export situation remains grim. According to customs statistics, from January to October this year, China's imports of organic products increased by 52.7% year-on-year, while imports of synthetic resins increased by 20.4% year-on-year. At the same time, due to the lack of external demand and trade protectionism, China's petrochemical exports have been severely hampered. In the first 10 months, China’s inorganic exports decreased by 15.4%, organic products declined by 13%, synthetic resins decreased by 24.8%, tires decreased by 9.6%, and chemical fertilizers decreased by 26.6%. This increase or decrease has greatly increased the competition in the domestic market.
As of the end of November, there were a total of 34,697 manufacturing enterprises in the petroleum and chemical industries across the country. The total output value (current price, the same below) was 635.91 billion yuan in the month, which was the highest level in the year, a substantial increase of 28.4% year-on-year and an increase of 3.9% year-on-year. In terms of sub-industries, the output value of the chemical industry was 372.19 billion yuan, an increase of 39.5% over the previous year, which was 41% faster; the output value of the oil and natural gas extraction industry was 73.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, and the first time this year saw a positive growth; the refinery industry output value was 174.27 billion yuan, up year-on-year. Increased by 20.8%. In November, the value added of the petroleum and chemical industries increased by 21.6% year-on-year, 4.7 percentage points higher than the previous month. Among them, the oil and natural gas extraction industry increased by 9.7%, the refining industry increased by 20.3%, and the chemical industry increased by 32.8%.
In November, the 62% (categories) of petroleum and chemical products tracked by the association accounted for 90.3% of the year-on-year increase, which was an increase of approximately 2 percentage points from the previous month; the growth rate of more than 10% of the species (categories) was 87.1%. It increased by about 13 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, crude oil output was 15.667 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, which was one of the few products to drop; natural gas output was 7.86 billion cubic meters, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year; crude oil processing volume was 33.363 million tons, an increase of 21% year-on-year, processing volume and growth rate Both hit record highs during the year; refined oil production reached 20.042 million tons, up 14.1% year-on-year; ethylene production was 0.989 million tons, up 33.6% year-on-year; fertilizer production was 5.484 million tons, up 34.4% year-on-year; pesticide production was 195,000 tons, up 33.7% year-on-year; Tire production was 60.185 million pieces, an increase of 35.6% year-on-year.
According to the analysis of the price index of more than 1,000 petrochemical products announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total price level of the petroleum and chemical industries continued to rise in November, and the total industry price index was 97.07 points (the same month of the previous year was 100, the same below). This is an increase of 9.01 points over October. Among the 1,000 or so petrochemical products, the price index rose by 44.2% month-on-month, 3.8 percentage points higher than the previous month, 19.8% flat, and 36%; the price index rose year-on-year. (Class) accounted for 25.5%, 6.7% for the flat, and 67.8% for the decline.
In November, the production and sales rate of petroleum and chemical products was 98.42%, which was 98.1% from January to November, which was a year-on-year increase of 0.09 percentage points. Production and sales were well connected. According to statistics, in October, the demand for major domestic petrochemical products continued to expand. In particular, the apparent consumption of fertilizers, synthetic materials, rubber tires, and methanol continued to grow rapidly. From January to October, the apparent consumption of oil increased by 1.4% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points higher than that from January to September, of which crude oil increased by 3.9% year-on-year and was 0.6% faster than the previous month. In the first 10 months, apparent consumption of chemical fertilizers increased by 12.7% year-on-year; apparent consumption of ethylene rose by 3.7% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous month; apparent consumption of methanol increased by 34.2%; and apparent consumption of synthetic resin increased by 14.4. %; Apparent consumption of synthetic rubber increased by 17.3% year-on-year; apparent consumption of polyester increased by 21.6% year-on-year; apparent consumption of tires increased by 45.9% year-on-year.
From January to November, the investment in fixed assets of the petroleum and chemical industries nationwide reached 878.253 billion yuan, an increase of 12.13% year-on-year, 1.5 percentage points higher than the period from January to October. The growth rate accelerated for the first time after a five-month slowdown. By sector, the investment in the chemical industry accounted for 65.5% of the total investment in the industry, an increase of 26.8% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points from January to October; investment in the oil and gas industry and the refining industry decreased by 9% and 13.3% year-on-year, respectively, a decrease of 1 From October to October, it was reduced by 5.9 and 1.1 percentage points respectively.
Statistics show that in November, the export delivery value of the oil and chemical industry was 33.495 billion yuan, a record high for the year, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year, and the first positive growth this year. From 1 to 11 years ago, the export value of the entire industry was 325.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%, which was 2.1 percentage points lower than the period from January to October. The export delivery value of the chemical industry was 271.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%.
However, there are still some problems in the current economic operation of the oil and chemical industry. First, the issue of overcapacity is still outstanding. Except for a small number of product capabilities, most of the products are surplus, and some surpluses are quite serious. What is particularly noteworthy is that investment in some industries with serious excess capacity is still accelerating. Second, the chemical market is showing little improvement, and most companies still have difficulty operating. Looking at the price of more than 1,000 kinds of petrochemical products announced by the National Bureau of Statistics in November, although the index has recovered, the market downturn has not changed fundamentally, and most companies are still struggling on the P/L line. Third, the pressure of import shocks has increased and the export situation remains grim. According to customs statistics, from January to October this year, China's imports of organic products increased by 52.7% year-on-year, while imports of synthetic resins increased by 20.4% year-on-year. At the same time, due to the lack of external demand and trade protectionism, China's petrochemical exports have been severely hampered. In the first 10 months, China’s inorganic exports decreased by 15.4%, organic products declined by 13%, synthetic resins decreased by 24.8%, tires decreased by 9.6%, and chemical fertilizers decreased by 26.6%. This increase or decrease has greatly increased the competition in the domestic market.
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