Current auto market capacity needs to be digested

It is understood that in the current global economic slowdown, the country's first-tier cities are limited cars, the Chinese auto market may be "into the era of micro-growth." The current auto market is facing multiple pressures and production capacity needs to be digested.

A group of figures issued by the Automobile Industry Association may confirm the industry’s prediction that from January to August this year, the country’s total automobile output was 12.4730 million units, an increase of 5.19% year-on-year, and the sales volume was 12.4747 million, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year, which was the lowest rate of increase in recent years. , and these two figures have exceeded 30% of the over-speed growth in 2009 and 2010.

First, the current auto market is facing multiple pressures from 2009 to 2011, China's auto production and sales boomed for three consecutive years, making the country's major auto manufacturers have to expand production capacity, according to statistics, by 2015 the total auto manufacturing capacity in China will reach 32.5 million giant. Based on the sales of new cars last year, in order to digest more than 30 million units of production capacity in 2015, new vehicle sales must increase by nearly 180% within three years. Otherwise, the Chinese auto industry will face a serious overcapacity situation.

Another data is dealer inventory. According to the prevailing practice of the same industry in the world, the coefficient reflects the inventory within a reasonable range between 0.8 and 1.2; the coefficient above 1.5 indicates that the inventory reaches the alert level; the coefficient above 2.5 indicates that the inventory is too high and the operating pressure and risk are very large. The recent survey data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association in the "Auto Dealer Inventory Index" shows that the inventory coefficient (inventory equivalent) for each month of dealers in the first half of the year shows an upward trend. The inventory coefficient in January was 1.49. It reached 2.3 in February and reached 2.5 in June. Some of its own brands exceeded 4.0. The market situation is not optimistic. The comprehensive inventory factor of dealers in September was 1.50, which was 0.15 lower than the 1.65 in August, but it is still at the critical point of warning.

More importantly, the total sales volume of new cars in China last year was 18.40 million units. In the same year, the annual trading volume of used cars was only about 5 million, indicating that the circulation of used cars in China has not yet played a key role in the production and sales of new cars. Nearly half of the production capacity of foreign developed vehicle production countries is absorbed by the “new-for-new” replacement business. Whether the domestic used-car circulation market can also emulate and release production pressure will become one of the few new growth points in the Chinese auto market.

Second, the emergence of new channels to highlight the pattern of changes in capacity compared to the domestic booming new car production and sales situation, China's auto market after the development of the industry is widely criticized. In addition to the image of the world's largest automobile production and sales country at the level of policies and regulations, the long-term relative primitive and backward universal business model has caused the slow development of the used car market in China.

Industry sources believe that China lacks second-hand car dealers with large transaction scales such as Carmax to promote the overall operating level and service capacity of second-hand cars at the retail end, and at the same time meet the continuous and batch demand for second-hand car goods that large dealers must guarantee. In terms of acquisition, it also put forward transformational requirements for the integration of domestic used car resources.

With the change in the demand for the used car circulation market, auctions for used cars with resource integration capabilities, such as "Youxinpai" and "Che Yipai", have been rapidly developed in the past one or two years, especially the "Unicomm With its advantage in the capital market and its focus on B2B (business-to-business) business model, it has rapidly expanded its use of core cities in domestic used cars, and its online auction platform has initially reached the concentration of resources required by the market. .

Li Shubo, general manager of Youxin Film Business Development and Marketing Center, said that Youxin Films has been officially launched since September last year and it has achieved wide market recognition in just one year. This is due to the company’s early establishment of the company’s market positioning. accurate. The main purpose of the operation of excellent letter shot is to achieve effective integration and reasonable distribution of domestic used car resources, and help second-hand car dealers to establish channels of profit maximization at both ends of sales and sales. At present, You Shin Piao has been authorized by a number of automobile manufacturers and Vodafone Group to become the designated application platform for its dealers' second-hand car auction business. It has successively established branch companies or provincial companies in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu and Zhengzhou, directly Provides a comprehensive online auction of used cars for local businesses. As of September of this year, Youxie has owned more than 500 branded 4S shop-level seller member users in core business cities headed by Beijing, and has more than 3,000 buyers nationwide. The total number of online auctions in the third quarter was close to 20,000 units, which has become the most influential second-hand car auction auction platform in China. In the future, Youxie will continue to invest in the consolidation of second-hand car resources. At the same time, it will promote and develop the purchasers of second-tier and third-tier cities, and promote the direct circulation of the places where vehicles are sold and retailed. The irrational profit superposition in the circulation process helps all cooperative merchants improve the circulation efficiency and operating profit of used cars.

Faced with the impact of increasing the relocation quotas on the circulation of used cars, Li Shubo believes that the increase in relocation quotas will not have a major impact on the overall distribution pattern of used cars, but it will have a significant impact on the price of used cars. In particular, the assessment of the residual value of second-hand cars purchased will definitely be reduced, and will not only be limited to vehicles under the China Three and National Three standards within the relocation limit, but also the purchase price of the second-class standard second-hand cars will be lower. The scope of derogation may not be Will be less than 20%. This may have a certain amount of restraint on the total amount of used cars flowing into the market over a period of time. However, in the long run, the continuous decline in the price of used cars driven by the increase in the replacement scale is an inevitable law of the market. The development of the used car industry in the future will surely rely on more transparent, more effective, and more direct channels of circulation. This is precisely the core strength of Youxin Film.

Second, pay attention to the use of used cars at home and abroad "full circulation"

In the current situation of the overcapacity of domestic automobile structural production and the imperfect distribution of second-hand automobiles, used car exports are likely to become a new way to release domestic autos to replace demand and to drive new car sales. Shen Rong, secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said: "A mature automotive industry abroad is not only exporting new cars to various countries, but also exporting used domestic cars. For example, Japan has more than 70% of its domestic used cars that rely on exports for digestion. The United States and Germany also have quite a few. The export of used cars to various countries will have a greater effect on the release of new domestic vehicle production capacity.With the increase in the pressure on China’s new vehicle production capacity and the increasing pressure on domestic used vehicles, the export of used cars will also become possible in the future. Conduct research in this area."

The data show that foreign auto-producing countries are exporting used cars that have been phased out of their own countries. For example, Japan exported 500,000 units in 2003, with a turnover of 30 billion yen (2 billion yuan), and in 2007 it has reached 1.3 million units. With a scale of 780 billion yen (500 billion yuan), the number of its exporting countries has reached 180. Apart from traditional Russia and New Zealand, emerging countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America have also entered the forefront of used car importers.

Li Shubo said that in the overseas used car export business, the export circulation through the auto auction company is the mainstream, and the commonly adopted method is to use the Internet to realize the participation of foreign buyers in domestic used car auction transactions. There is no essential difference between the auctions of buyers and customers everywhere, but the scope has been expanded. At present, there are no technical problems in the domestic used car exports, mainly to see the adjustment of relevant national policies.

According to industry sources, not long ago, the State Department of Commerce organized a small-scale industry seminar on the theme of second-hand car exports. Invited a number of influential dealers and industry organizations in Beijing, including Youxinpai, Beiqi Penglong, and a large group, to jointly discuss the use of used car exports. However, judging from the current domestic auto export policy, there is no clear timetable for the release of domestic used car exports. Although many industry experts have started to appeal to relevant departments to relax the export policy of used cars and implement the “full circulation” of domestic and foreign markets. , that this will help to release the excess capacity.