The school bus market with support policies

This year's school bus market can be said to be a rare bright spot in the overall downturn in the commercial vehicle market. Statistics show that from January to April, domestic commercial vehicle sales were 1.386400, which represented a decline of more than double digits year-on-year. Looking at the market segments, in addition to the positive growth of passenger vehicles, the sales growth of other models, including trucks, semi-trailer tractors, and non-integrated trucks, have all “stood negative” and the decline has been significant. .

From the perspective of related parties, the reason why buses can become “a little red in the green cluster” mainly depends on the two major growth points of school buses and exports. Of these, the support of school buses is particularly significant.

“If the school bus factor is excluded, medium and light passenger vehicles will all have larger declines, and the overall performance of the passenger car market will also be greatly affected. Therefore, from the perspective of the contribution to the market, school buses have become an increase in bus sales this year. The main factor," said Zhen Zhenqing, deputy secretary-general of the China Road Society School Bus Committee.

Great potential for a good start

According to the statistics released by the China Bus Statistical Information Network, from January to April, 8,490 school buses have been sold in China, which accounted for 12% of the total sales of the passenger car industry. Among them, light school buses and medium-sized school buses accounted for 48.5% and 48.1% of the market respectively, while sales of large school buses are extremely limited. In the 9 series, school buses above 11 meters have not yet achieved sales, and sales are mainly concentrated in the range of 6 to 9 meters.

In addition, as the purchasing power of domestic school bus customers still needs to be further improved, the demand for school buses is still dominated by mid-end vehicles, and the average selling price is stable at around RMB 150,000 per vehicle.

Judging from the market distribution, in addition to Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and Macao, 34 provinces and municipalities in China have achieved school bus sales in 30 provinces and cities. The top sellers are Guangdong, Henan and Guangxi. “According to our estimation, in the four provinces, districts and cities that have not achieved sales, Xinjiang will have a huge potential market. The school bus gap in the future will be expected to reach around 5,000.” Zhen Zhenqing judged.

The huge potential of the school bus market does not exist only in Xinjiang. It is very likely that it will “flower everywhere” in all provinces and cities. “At present, the demand for school buses is extremely strong everywhere. With this, the monthly sales volume will remain at about 2,000 after the school vehicle sales have entered a stable period. It is expected that the school buses will also be available in August and September before and after the start of the new semester in the second half of the second semester. Will usher in the next wave of sales season.” National Securities auto analyst Cao He analysis that China's school bus market is expected to sell about 300 billion yuan, of which more than 70% of the market will be filled in the next two years. This means that the school bus market in China will usher in a new round of major development within two years. As the "first year" for the development of China's exclusive school bus, the sales of domestic school buses will be expected to exceed 30,000 this year.

Deep influence of policy intensive

In fact, the domestic school bus market can radiate such vigorous vitality. The fundamental reason lies in the continuous promotion of the policy level. School Bus Safety Management Regulations (hereinafter referred to as the "Regulations"), "Safety Technical Conditions for Specialized School Buses", "Strength of Special School Bus Student Seating Systems and Vehicle Mounting Components," and a series of policies and standards, and "Professional School Bus Production Enterprises" The intensive introduction of policies on product access management (drafts for comment) (hereinafter referred to as the “Access Rule”) not only shows the importance the country places on the school bus market, but also has a profound impact on the school bus market.

Relevant persons believe that in these policies concerning school bus development, the "Regulations" and "Access Rules" have the most significant impact on the entire industry. Zhen Zhenqing deeply believed in this. He told reporters that the "Policy for School Bus Safety" clearly clarified the government responsibility for school bus safety management, mobilized the enthusiasm of the local government, and was conducive to the further expansion of the school bus market demand.

And the related regulations, the impact on school bus products can not be underestimated. "On the one hand, the implementation of the "Regulations" is conducive to enhancing the technical content of school bus products. On the other hand, under the influence of the "Regulations," the school car market's future product structure will also undergo certain changes." Zhen Zhenqing said that the "Regulations" will The maximum number of occupants is limited to 56 seats, which means that the market development of large school buses will be constrained. Without the inclusion of young children in the scope of management, the prospects for the development of school buses of about 5 meters are not optimistic.

As for the "Access Rule" just released, it aims to refine the industry management of school buses. In the document, 33 standards and conditions are set for the admission conditions and assessment standards of school bus production enterprises. In this regard, some analysts pointed out that the implementation of access system for school bus production companies will help regulate the production and operation of school buses, and lay a good foundation for the healthy and rapid development of the market. "As the "Access Rule" is about to enter the implementation stage, the school bus industry will also face a further reshuffle, and the degree of industrial concentration will be expected to accelerate." A car analyst told reporters that the current school bus fleet in the United States has reached 600,000 vehicles. But there are only 4 to 5 professional school bus manufacturers. However, if China's school bus industry wants a healthy development, the number of production enterprises should be controlled at around 10.

In addition, he also emphasized that the "Access Rules" relaxed the scope of school bus production enterprises, making some of the conversion companies have also obtained school bus production qualifications. This may put the professional school bus manufacturer in a disadvantageous position. “On the one hand, the investment in R&D, technology, and quality management of school buses directly produced by vehicle companies is much higher than the cost of school buses that have been converted, and thus the market price is slightly higher. If low-price competition takes up the market share of the automaker, it will have a certain impact on the entire vehicle manufacturing company that is mainly responsible for light school buses.” The analyst said without hesitation.

Therefore, he suggested that relevant departments and schools should adopt a tender system when making school bus purchases so that manufacturers can bid through brands, technologies, and product strengths in order to form a healthy competition in the industry and promote the healthy development of the school bus industry.

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